Thu, Feb 10, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Islanders 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 112 | 110 | 110 | 01 | 1 | 433 |
| MTL | 19 | 220 | 010 | 01 | 0 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:10MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: David Desharnais, Jaroslav Spacek · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 16:35NYIJohn TavaresUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 5:49MTLBenoit PouliotAssists: Ryan White · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 17:10NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Frans Nielsen, Jack Hillen · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 18:08MTLTomas PlekanecUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 4:08NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Frans Nielsen, Jack Hillen · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. MTL Brian Gionta stopped
- 2. NYI Rob Schremp stopped
- 3. MTL Max Pacioretty stopped
- 4. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
- 5. MTL Tomas Plekanec stopped
- 6. NYI PA Parenteau stopped
- 7. MTL Benoit Pouliot stopped
- 8. NYI Kyle Okposo scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:37MTLBenoit Pouliot: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:46MTLMax Pacioretty: Holding2 min
- P1 9:29NYIJack Hillen: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:13MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:06NYIRadek Martinek: Charging2 min
- P1 12:48MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:59NYIJohn Tavares: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 3:02NYIRadek Martinek: Interference2 min
- P3 5:56MTLRyan White: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Grabner13:19
xG 0.98–0.10 (91%)attempts 18–11goals 2–0
- Parenteau – Konopka – Martin2:01
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Schremp – Joensuu – Bailey8:37
xG 0.28–0.35 (45%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares11:57
xG 0.62–1.01 (38%)attempts 13–21goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJurcina – Hillen13:57
xG 0.60–0.33 (65%)attempts 6–13goals 2–0
- Martinek – Gervais9:09
xG 0.58–0.63 (48%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Martinek – Hillen2:16
xG 0.01–0.36 (3%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Desharnais – White9:30
xG 0.95–0.10 (90%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Pacioretty13:07
xG 1.02–0.53 (66%)attempts 23–11goals 0–1
- Gomez – Kostitsyn – Eller9:27
xG 0.29–0.58 (33%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Halpern – Moen – Pyatt7:46
xG 0.06–0.42 (12%)attempts 4–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPicard – Weber11:12
xG 0.81–0.33 (71%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Spacek – Wisniewski2:03
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Wisniewski16:06
xG 1.24–1.15 (52%)attempts 24–21goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).