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Ice Lab

Fri, Feb 11, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale

Pittsburgh Penguins 3, New York Islanders 9

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

3

Final

Home

New York Islanders

9

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 77% of the time.

NYI winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PIT010217111338
NYI41641218936

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:51NYITravis HamonicAssists: Michael Grabner, Frans Nielsen · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
  2. P1 12:52NYIJesse JoensuuAssists: Josh Bailey, Matt Martin · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
  3. P1 17:48NYIPA ParenteauPPAssists: Travis Hamonic, John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.21 xG0–3
  4. P1 19:12NYIMichael GrabnerGWGAssists: Bruno Gervais, Radek Martinek · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–4
  5. P2 3:16NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Travis Hamonic, Matt Moulson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–5
  6. P2 3:46NYIMicheal HaleyAssists: Jack Hillen · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–6
  7. P2 6:08PITKris LetangPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Brett Sterling · Slap, 0.05 xG1–6
  8. P2 9:04PITJordan StaalPPAssists: Tyler Kennedy · Snap, 0.04 xG2–6
  9. P2 13:31NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: PA Parenteau, John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–7
  10. P2 17:50NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: John Tavares, Milan Jurcina · Wrist, 0.57 xG2–8
  11. P3 7:46PITTyler KennedyPPAssists: Kris Letang, Joe Vitale · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–8
  12. P3 17:51NYIMichael GrabnerSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–9
Penalties (65)
  1. P1 2:37NYIMicheal Haley: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 10:22NYIMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 10:22PITCraig Adams: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 14:33NYITravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min
  5. P1 15:51PITEric Tangradi: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  6. P1 17:56PITEric Godard: Fighting5 min
  7. P1 17:56NYITrevor Gillies: Fighting5 min
  8. P1 0:00NYIJohn Tavares: Slashing2 min
  9. P2 5:21NYIJosh Bailey: Fighting5 min · PPG
  10. P2 5:21NYIJosh Bailey: Game misconduct10 min
  11. P2 5:21PITPascal Dupuis: Fighting5 min
  12. P2 5:21PITPascal Dupuis: Game misconduct10 min
  13. P2 5:21NYITravis Hamonic: Fighting5 min
  14. P2 5:21PITMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
  15. P2 5:21PITMike Rupp: Game misconduct10 min
  16. P2 5:21PITDeryk Engelland: Roughing2 min
  17. P2 5:21PITDeryk Engelland: Game misconduct10 min
  18. P2 5:21NYITravis Hamonic: Game misconduct10 min
  19. P2 5:21NYIMatt Martin: Instigator2 min
  20. P2 5:21NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
  21. P2 5:21NYIMatt Martin: Game misconduct10 min
  22. P2 5:21NYIMatt Martin: Misconduct10 min
  23. P2 7:51NYIFrans Nielsen: Slashing2 min
  24. P2 17:20PITEric Godard: Roughing2 min · PPG
  25. P2 17:30PITZbynek Michalek: Slashing2 min
  26. P3 1:19PITBrooks Orpik: Charging2 min
  27. P3 1:19NYIKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
  28. P3 4:47PITBrent Johnson: Fighting5 min
  29. P3 4:47PITEric Godard: Roughing2 min
  30. P3 4:47PITEric Godard: Game misconduct10 min
  31. P3 4:47PITEric Godard: Roughing2 min
  32. P3 4:47PITEric Godard: Game misconduct10 min
  33. P3 4:47PITMax Talbot: Fighting5 min
  34. P3 4:47PITCraig Adams: Roughing2 min
  35. P3 4:47PITCraig Adams: Game misconduct10 min
  36. P3 4:47NYIMicheal Haley: Instigator2 min
  37. P3 4:47NYIMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min · PPG
  38. P3 4:47NYIMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
  39. P3 4:47NYIMicheal Haley: Game misconduct10 min
  40. P3 4:47NYIMicheal Haley: Misconduct10 min
  41. P3 4:47NYITrevor Gillies: Roughing2 min
  42. P3 4:47NYITrevor Gillies: Roughing2 min
  43. P3 4:47NYITrevor Gillies: Elbowing5 min
  44. P3 4:47NYITrevor Gillies: Game misconduct10 min
  45. P3 4:47NYITrevor Gillies: Misconduct10 min
  46. P3 12:12PITBrett Sterling: Roughing2 min
  47. P3 12:12NYIKyle Okposo: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  48. P3 12:40PITTyler Kennedy: Holding2 min
  49. P3 16:04NYIZenon Konopka: Roughing2 min
  50. P3 16:04PITMax Talbot: Roughing2 min
  51. P3 16:04PITMax Talbot: Misconduct10 min
  52. P3 16:04NYIKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
  53. P3 16:04NYIZenon Konopka: Misconduct10 min
  54. P3 16:04NYIJesse Joensuu: Too many men on the ice2 min
  55. P3 16:04PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
  56. P3 16:04PITKris Letang: Misconduct10 min
  57. P3 16:04NYIKyle Okposo: Misconduct10 min
  58. P3 16:12PITBrett Sterling: Misconduct10 min
  59. P3 16:12NYIJack Hillen: Misconduct10 min
  60. P3 17:43NYIAndrew MacDonald: Cross checking2 min
  61. P3 17:43PITJoe Vitale: Cross checking2 min
  62. P3 17:43NYIAndrew MacDonald: Fighting5 min
  63. P3 17:43PITJoe Vitale: Fighting5 min
  64. P3 17:58PITRyan Craig: Cross checking2 min
  65. P3 17:58PITRyan Craig: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYI
47% to win53% to win
← PIT attackNYI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Talbot won the faceoff against Tavares
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITNYI
38Shots on goal36
4.4Expected goals6.6
73Shot attempts63
34Faceoffs won37
9Power plays5
163Penalty minutes183
18Hits22
16Blocked shots22
8Giveaways4
6Takeaways7

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Forward lines

  1. bestAdams – Talbot – Tangradi2:11

    xG 0.39–0.29 (58%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1

  2. Sterling – Johnson – Staal8:35

    xG 0.67–0.84 (44%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestOrpik – Michalek4:59

    xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0

  2. Engelland – Goligoski4:40

    xG 0.01–0.25 (5%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1

  3. Orpik – Letang6:27

    xG 0.46–0.71 (40%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1

New York Islanders

Forward lines

  1. bestNielsen – Okposo – Grabner6:43

    xG 0.91–0.28 (76%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0

  2. Joensuu – Bailey – Martin3:30

    xG 0.20–0.03 (88%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0

  3. Konopka – Joensuu – Haley2:08

    xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0

  4. Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares8:50

    xG 0.59–0.82 (42%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestJurcina – Hillen6:27

    xG 0.70–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0

  2. MacDonald – Hamonic7:06

    xG 1.05–0.65 (62%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0

  3. Martinek – MacDonald2:55

    xG 0.29–0.08 (78%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYI 6.6 xGPIT 4.4 xG
0246P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYIPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 62/100 · #444 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.58 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 51% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50NYI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 77% of the time.

NYI winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (NYI − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).