Fri, Feb 11, 2011·Philips Arena, Atlanta
New York Rangers 2, Atlanta Thrashers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 013 | 19 | 17 | 229 |
| ATL | 113 | 010 | 212 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:08ATLAnthony StewartAssists: Alexander Burmistrov, Evander Kane · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 0:26NYRMarc StaalPPAssists: Marian Gaborik, Vinny Prospal · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 1:11NYRBrandon DubinskyAssists: Marian Gaborik, Ryan McDonagh · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 14:09ATLEvander KaneAssists: Anthony Stewart, Ron Hainsey · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 17:40ATLEvander KanePPGWGAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Toby Enstrom · Backhand, 0.30 xG2–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:07ATLEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:07NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:58ATLAndrew Ladd: Holding2 min
- P1 8:22NYRMarc Staal: Interference2 min
- P2 0:17ATLAnthony Stewart: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:52NYRDerek Stepan: Holding2 min
- P2 11:35NYRMatt Gilroy: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:47ATLChris Thorburn: Interference2 min
- P3 5:58NYRSean Avery: Charging2 min
- P3 7:36ATLBrent Sopel: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 16:04NYRMichael Del Zotto: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:01NYRMarc Staal: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:01ATLNik Antropov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Christensen won the faceoff against Antropov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Wolski – Stepan – Zuccarello6:06
xG 0.18–0.19 (48%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov11:46
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Prospal – Gaborik – Christensen10:56
xG 0.30–0.39 (44%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Avery – Boyle – Prust8:34
xG 0.06–0.20 (22%)attempts 1–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSauer – McDonagh13:00
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Gilroy11:27
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Staal – Girardi17:58
xG 0.43–0.68 (39%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestPeverley – Cormier – Burmistrov2:01
xG 0.25–0.00 (99%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Boulton – Thorburn – Stapleton4:12
xG 0.25–0.12 (68%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Ladd – Peverley – Little6:28
xG 0.06–0.02 (71%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Antropov – Stewart – Kane7:37
xG 0.28–0.36 (44%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSopel – Oduya12:09
xG 0.67–0.34 (67%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Bogosian15:11
xG 0.42–0.33 (56%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Enstrom – Byfuglien14:14
xG 0.18–0.28 (39%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).