Fri, Feb 11, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Minnesota Wild 5, St. Louis Blues 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 19 | 19 | 28 | 01 | 4 | 527 |
| STL | 211 | 05 | 216 | 03 | 3 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:50STLPatrik BerglundAssists: T.J. Oshie, Carlo Colaiacovo · Deflected, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 2:49MINAndrew BrunetteAssists: Brent Burns, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 15:34STLAndy McDonaldAssists: Brad Boyes, Roman Polak · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 1:30MINCal ClutterbuckAssists: Martin Havlat · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 0:19STLDavid BackesAssists: Brad Boyes, Barret Jackman · Deflected, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 0:41MINCal ClutterbuckAssists: Kyle Brodziak · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 6:20STLDavid BackesAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Andy McDonald · Deflected, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 19:02MINMartin HavlatAssists: Mikko Koivu, Andrew Brunette · Tip-in, 0.30 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. MIN Matt Cullen stopped
- 2. STL T.J. Oshie scored
- 3. MIN Pierre-Marc Bouchard scored
- 4. STL Brad Boyes scored
- 5. MIN Mikko Koivu scored
- 6. STL Andy McDonald stopped
- 7. MIN Brent Burns scored
- 8. STL Alexander Steen scored
- 9. MIN Cal Clutterbuck stopped
- 10. STL Matt D'Agostini stopped
- 11. MIN Antti Miettinen stopped
- 12. STL David Backes stopped
- 13. MIN Andrew Brunette stopped
- 14. STL Erik Johnson stopped
- 15. MIN Martin Havlat stopped
- 16. STL Patrik Berglund stopped
- 17. MIN John Madden scored
- 18. STL Vladimir Sobotka stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:28STLBrad Winchester: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:28MINBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:26STLBrad Boyes: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 15:38MINKyle Brodziak: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:46MINClayton Stoner: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:26MINEric Nystrom: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:58STLMatt D'Agostini: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHavlat – Brodziak – Clutterbuck11:50
xG 0.74–0.33 (69%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Brunette – Miettinen – Koivu11:06
xG 0.64–0.29 (69%)attempts 7–9goals 1–2
- Madden – Nystrom – Staubitz5:30
xG 0.25–0.10 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Cullen – Kobasew – Bouchard9:46
xG 0.18–0.47 (28%)attempts 4–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Stoner16:15
xG 0.95–0.50 (65%)attempts 12–15goals 2–2
- Barker – Spurgeon10:48
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Schultz – Burns19:34
xG 0.69–0.71 (49%)attempts 13–21goals 1–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Sobotka – D'Agostini9:16
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- McDonald – Boyes – Backes9:30
xG 0.36–0.41 (46%)attempts 10–5goals 3–1
- Winchester – McClement – D'Agostini2:01
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Steen – Oshie – Berglund12:32
xG 0.35–0.85 (29%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Pietrangelo3:18
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Brewer – Colaiacovo11:40
xG 0.45–0.32 (58%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Brewer – Pietrangelo2:01
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).