Sat, Feb 12, 2011·Verizon Center, Washington
Los Angeles Kings 4, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 04 | 115 | 39 | 428 |
| WSH | 18 | 07 | 08 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:06WSHAlex OvechkinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 10:41LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Michal Handzus · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–1
- P3 3:36LAKAndrei LoktionovGWGAssists: Kyle Clifford, Matt Greene · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P3 12:28LAKMichal HandzusAssists: Anze Kopitar, Wayne Simmonds · Backhand, 0.23 xG3–1
- P3 13:56LAKJarret StollAssists: Justin Williams, Ryan Smyth · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:57WSHDJ King: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:57LAKKevin Westgarth: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:07LAKMatt Greene: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:38LAKJustin Williams: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:27WSHMike Green: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:17LAKMatt Greene: Interference2 min
- P3 15:46LAKKyle Clifford: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Johansson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestHandzus – Kopitar – Simmonds11:25
xG 0.83–0.14 (86%)attempts 12–3goals 2–0
- Brown – Loktionov – Clifford9:16
xG 0.68–0.12 (85%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Ponikarovsky – Brown – Lewis2:20
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Smyth – Williams – Kopitar2:15
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Martinez12:41
xG 1.02–0.12 (90%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Mitchell – Doughty16:39
xG 0.69–0.25 (73%)attempts 19–11goals 2–1
- Scuderi – Johnson16:47
xG 0.21–0.39 (35%)attempts 19–16goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Bradley – Steckel – King5:50
xG 0.11–0.11 (51%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Knuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom2:29
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Laich – Semin – Perreault2:30
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
- Knuble – Hendricks – Johansson8:35
xG 0.23–0.41 (36%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Erskine13:36
xG 0.44–0.18 (70%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Hannan – Green3:22
xG 0.05–0.06 (45%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson16:17
xG 0.39–0.61 (39%)attempts 15–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).