Sat, Feb 12, 2011·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Ottawa Senators 5, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 26 | 09 | 310 | 525 |
| EDM | 16 | 15 | 17 | 318 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:51OTTBobby ButlerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 3:45EDMAndrew CoglianoAssists: Jordan Eberle, Kurtis Foster · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 7:27OTTAlex KovalevAssists: Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 4:11EDMDustin PennerAssists: Ales Hemsky · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 8:03OTTMilan MichalekPPAssists: Bobby Butler, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 14:10OTTPeter ReginGWGAssists: Alex Kovalev, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 17:39EDMDustin PennerAssists: Ales Hemsky, Linus Omark · Snap, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 18:37OTTAlex KovalevENAssists: Jason Spezza, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.49 xG5–3
Penalties (22)
- P1 7:55EDMJim Vandermeer: Interference2 min
- P1 10:48EDMDustin Penner: Holding2 min
- P1 13:30OTTJim O'Brien: Holding2 min
- P2 10:03EDMKurtis Foster: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:34OTTJason Spezza: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:34OTTJason Spezza: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:34EDMLadislav Smid: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:34EDMLadislav Smid: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:34OTTMilan Michalek: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:34OTTMilan Michalek: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:34EDMColin Fraser: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:34EDMColin Fraser: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:37EDMNikolai Khabibulin: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:37EDMNikolai Khabibulin: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:37EDMTheo Peckham: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:37OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:24EDMJean-Francois Jacques: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:11EDMAndrew Cogliano: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:06OTTZack Smith: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:07OTTBrian Lee: Holding2 min
- P3 15:34OTTBrian Lee: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:17OTTJason Spezza: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Penner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Michalek – Butler8:25
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Ruutu – Shannon – O'Brien3:51
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Neil – Kelly – Smith10:06
xG 0.21–0.26 (45%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Kovalev – Regin – Foligno10:07
xG 0.34–0.52 (40%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Karlsson10:26
xG 0.24–0.04 (85%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Kuba – Lee7:31
xG 0.33–0.38 (47%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Phillips – Lee2:30
xG 0.03–0.08 (27%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Eberle – Hall8:58
xG 0.44–0.12 (78%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Jacques – Fraser – Jones4:30
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Penner – Reddox6:21
xG 0.16–0.18 (46%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Gagner – Omark – Paajarvi7:53
xG 0.23–0.30 (44%)attempts 9–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestVandermeer – Foster8:24
xG 0.25–0.08 (76%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Smid – Petry9:42
xG 0.16–0.17 (48%)attempts 8–7goals 1–2
- Gilbert – Peckham11:48
xG 0.27–0.31 (46%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).