Sat, Feb 12, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
St. Louis Blues 1, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 05 | 113 | 07 | 125 |
| MIN | 112 | 212 | 07 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:51MINCal ClutterbuckAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Pierre-Marc Bouchard · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 4:07MINAntti MiettinenPPGWGAssists: Andrew Brunette · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 8:22MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Brent Burns · Slap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 14:48STLPatrik BerglundPPAssists: T.J. Oshie, Brad Boyes · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
Penalties (20)
- P1 6:13MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:44STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:13STLMatt D'Agostini: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:13MINCam Barker: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:48STLCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:48MINBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:48STLCam Janssen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 3:58STLAlexander Steen: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 7:39MINBrad Staubitz: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:18STLJaroslav Halak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:51MINGreg Zanon: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:34STLEric Brewer: Holding2 min
- P3 2:20MINBrent Burns: Holding2 min
- P3 14:03STLAlexander Steen: Interference2 min
- P3 0:00STLDavid Backes: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00MINGreg Zanon: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00STLAlexander Steen: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00MINClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00MINClayton Stoner: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00STLDavid Backes: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDonald won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Winchester – Janssen – Crombeen2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Steen – Oshie – Berglund7:19
xG 0.11–0.13 (45%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- McClement – Sobotka – D'Agostini7:57
xG 0.18–0.21 (46%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- McDonald – Boyes – Backes9:42
xG 0.18–0.33 (35%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Brewer – Colaiacovo13:08
xG 0.20–0.22 (47%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Pietrangelo13:07
xG 0.28–0.42 (40%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Jackman – Polak10:31
xG 0.02–0.45 (5%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBrunette – Miettinen – Koivu8:28
xG 0.40–0.07 (85%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Havlat – Brodziak – Clutterbuck7:05
xG 0.28–0.14 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Madden – Kobasew – Nystrom2:13
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Madden – Nystrom – Staubitz3:30
xG 0.06–0.08 (44%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Stoner13:57
xG 0.73–0.19 (80%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Schultz – Burns13:13
xG 0.41–0.25 (63%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Barker – Spurgeon10:14
xG 0.03–0.17 (16%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).