Sun, Feb 13, 2011·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
New York Islanders 7, Buffalo Sabres 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 29 | 17 | 39 | 11 | 726 |
| BUF | 311 | 14 | 211 | 02 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:40NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Frans Nielsen, Kyle Okposo · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 6:46BUFJochen HechtUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 7:42BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Tyler Ennis, Tim Connolly · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P1 12:49NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Travis Hamonic, Matt Moulson · Backhand, 0.27 xG2–2
- P1 17:39BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Tyler Ennis, Tim Connolly · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–3
- P2 4:31BUFNathan GerbeAssists: Shaone Morrisonn · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P2 18:55NYIBlake ComeauAssists: Frans Nielsen, Kyle Okposo · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 3:00NYIMichael GrabnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–4
- P3 5:26BUFTyler MyersAssists: Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–5
- P3 11:32NYIMilan JurcinaPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, John Tavares · Slap, 0.07 xG5–5
- P3 12:48NYITy WishartPPAssists: Milan Jurcina, Josh Bailey · Deflected, 0.18 xG6–5
- P3 13:19BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Jordan Leopold, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.32 xG6–6
- OT 2:55NYIMichael GrabnerGWGAssists: Kyle Okposo, Andrew MacDonald · Wrist, 0.17 xG7–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 18:31BUFPatrick Kaleta: Charging2 min
- P1 0:00NYITravis Hamonic: Misconduct10 min
- P2 2:11NYIBruno Gervais: Interference2 min
- P2 7:26BUFCody McCormick: Elbowing2 min
- P2 11:09NYIPA Parenteau: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:44BUFJordan Leopold: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:44BUFJordan Leopold: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:02BUFTyler Ennis: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:04BUFJochen Hecht: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:15NYITravis Hamonic: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Grabner10:09
xG 0.55–0.26 (68%)attempts 13–5goals 2–1
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares10:31
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 9–8goals 1–2
- Konopka – Schremp – Haley4:00
xG 0.02–0.09 (17%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
- Comeau – Joensuu – Bailey6:49
xG 0.05–0.16 (23%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic12:05
xG 0.61–0.50 (55%)attempts 12–12goals 2–1
- Martinek – MacDonald3:58
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Martinek – Gervais10:54
xG 0.20–0.20 (49%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestConnolly – Stafford – Ennis12:31
xG 0.76–0.31 (71%)attempts 14–7goals 3–0
- McCormick – Kaleta – Gerbe7:24
xG 0.20–0.11 (65%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Hecht – Pominville – Vanek11:35
xG 0.49–0.42 (54%)attempts 17–5goals 2–1
- Niedermayer – Grier – Gaustad5:46
xG 0.13–0.17 (44%)attempts 4–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Myers12:00
xG 0.81–0.33 (71%)attempts 22–5goals 2–1
- Morrisonn – Weber10:17
xG 0.42–0.12 (78%)attempts 7–7goals 2–2
- Leopold – Butler14:12
xG 0.39–0.65 (37%)attempts 9–15goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).