Sun, Feb 13, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 210 | 010 | 19 | 329 |
| NYR | 210 | 316 | 05 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:06PITDeryk EngellandAssists: Chris Conner, Mike Rupp · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 5:06PITNick JohnsonAssists: Jordan Staal, Pascal Dupuis · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 5:43NYRBrian BoyleAssists: Marc Staal · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 9:20NYRRyan CallahanPPAssists: Dan Girardi, Wojtek Wolski · Tip-in, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 1:34NYRVinny ProspalAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Marian Gaborik · Snap, 0.16 xG2–3
- P2 11:04NYRRyan CallahanPPGWGAssists: Marc Staal, Derek Stepan · Slap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P2 15:23NYRArtem AnisimovPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Ryan Callahan · Snap, 0.46 xG2–5
- P3 5:12PITBrett SterlingPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Kris Letang · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:58PITPascal Dupuis: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:20PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:26NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Holding2 min
- P1 11:26NYRBrandon Dubinsky: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:29PITPascal Dupuis: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:40PITBrett Sterling: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 14:04PITAlex Goligoski: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:42NYRDerek Stepan: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:58NYRRyan Callahan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:29NYRMichael Sauer: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Adams won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestRupp – Talbot – Conner7:01
xG 0.54–0.25 (68%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Adams – Dupuis – Kennedy3:34
xG 0.27–0.09 (75%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Craig – Vitale – Wallace3:47
xG 0.14–0.14 (49%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Sterling – Johnson – Staal5:20
xG 0.07–0.59 (11%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Letang6:20
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Engelland – Goligoski9:34
xG 0.68–0.57 (54%)attempts 12–19goals 2–1
- Orpik – Engelland3:14
xG 0.11–0.06 (62%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestAvery – Boyle – Prust2:42
xG 0.22–0.11 (67%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Avery – Anisimov – Stepan2:35
xG 0.04–0.01 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Boyle – Wolski – Callahan4:12
xG 0.10–0.14 (42%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Christensen – Prust – Zuccarello3:02
xG 0.05–0.14 (24%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Girardi12:25
xG 0.56–0.07 (89%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Sauer – McDonagh16:07
xG 0.51–0.45 (53%)attempts 20–18goals 0–1
- Eminger – Gilroy3:50
xG 0.16–0.66 (19%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).