Sun, Feb 13, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 118 | 112 | 09 | 239 |
| DAL | 16 | 010 | 014 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:36DALBrad RichardsPPAssists: Trevor Daley, Steve Ott · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 5:22CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Anton Stralman, Jan Hejda · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–1
- P2 6:33CBJRick NashGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek, Anton Stralman · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:56CBJFedor Tyutin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:11DALTomas Vincour: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:27CBJFedor Tyutin: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:00CBJKris Russell: Delaying game2 min
- P2 11:17DALBrenden Morrow: Interference2 min
- P2 13:52CBJRick Nash: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:52CBJDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:21CBJFedor Tyutin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Gagnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Boll – Calvert5:32
xG 0.66–0.22 (75%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Nash – Brassard – Voracek10:58
xG 0.51–0.11 (82%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Clark – Pahlsson – Murray11:07
xG 0.33–0.07 (83%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Huselius – Vermette – Umberger12:19
xG 0.28–0.52 (35%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Stralman11:34
xG 1.00–0.28 (78%)attempts 19–9goals 2–0
- Clitsome – Russell10:54
xG 0.67–0.23 (74%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Hejda – Clitsome2:13
xG 0.04–0.04 (50%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Ribeiro – Vincour4:18
xG 0.32–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Langenbrunner – Ott – Wandell2:13
xG 0.13–0.03 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Sutherby – Williams – Gagnon3:02
xG 0.18–0.28 (39%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Ott – Wandell – Vincour4:17
xG 0.12–0.22 (35%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWoywitka – Daley14:28
xG 0.63–0.41 (60%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Robidas – Woywitka2:26
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Robidas – Skrastins10:23
xG 0.06–0.15 (29%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).