Sun, Feb 13, 2011·Philips Arena, Atlanta
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Atlanta Thrashers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 18 | 15 | 14 | 317 |
| ATL | 09 | 120 | 114 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:06CARJiri TlustyAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Sergei Samsonov · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 3:20ATLAndrew LaddUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 18:24CARJoe CorvoAssists: Brandon Sutter, Jeff Skinner · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 0:26ATLAndrew LaddUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 18:41CARErik ColeGWGAssists: Sergei Samsonov, Ian White · Snap, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:07ATLAndrew Ladd: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 14:33CARTuomo Ruutu: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:39CAREric Staal: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:59ATLToby Enstrom: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Ruutu – Sutter – Skinner11:25
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Bodie – Samson – Dalpe4:54
xG 0.11–0.17 (40%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Dwyer – Tlusty10:07
xG 0.32–0.44 (42%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Cole – LaRose – Staal12:32
xG 0.15–1.12 (12%)attempts 5–19goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Corvo – Gleason5:31
xG 0.09–0.18 (35%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Harrison – White12:02
xG 0.16–0.36 (31%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Gleason – McBain11:57
xG 0.25–0.57 (30%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Bergfors – Little9:18
xG 0.80–0.11 (88%)attempts 18–6goals 2–2
- Antropov – Stewart – Kane13:40
xG 0.91–0.37 (71%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Boulton – Thorburn – Peverley7:59
xG 0.29–0.03 (91%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Stapleton – Machacek – Cormier3:51
xG 0.13–0.14 (48%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien17:01
xG 1.17–0.13 (90%)attempts 25–9goals 2–1
- Sopel – Oduya9:24
xG 0.59–0.01 (98%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Bogosian17:48
xG 0.33–0.51 (40%)attempts 13–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).