Sun, Feb 13, 2011·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Boston Bruins 2, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 29 | 06 | 010 | 225 |
| DET | 110 | 219 | 17 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:29BOSTyler SeguinAssists: Blake Wheeler, Michael Ryder · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 6:09DETTodd BertuzziUnassisted · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 12:17BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Michael Ryder, Mark Recchi · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 3:54DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Brian Rafalski, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 12:44DETKris DraperGWGAssists: Patrick Eaves, Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 13:35DETTodd BertuzziAssists: Johan Franzen, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:21DETKris Draper: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:06BOSMichael Ryder: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:28DETBrian Rafalski: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:51BOSZdeno Chara: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:53BOSGregory Campbell: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:35DETJohan Franzen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Hudler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Wheeler – Seguin10:45
xG 0.68–0.36 (65%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic10:48
xG 0.55–0.28 (66%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Thornton – Campbell – Caron4:43
xG 0.04–0.05 (42%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Recchi – Bergeron – Marchand10:06
xG 0.20–0.33 (37%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – McQuaid9:13
xG 0.63–0.13 (83%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Chara – McQuaid3:46
xG 0.12–0.03 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Chara – Boychuk14:15
xG 0.44–0.55 (45%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Datsyuk – Hudler11:27
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Holmstrom – Miller – Abdelkader8:27
xG 0.24–0.08 (75%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Zetterberg – Franzen12:00
xG 0.54–0.43 (56%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Draper – Eaves – Helm8:20
xG 0.20–0.57 (26%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRafalski – Ericsson12:55
xG 0.62–0.30 (67%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Rafalski – Kronwall2:48
xG 0.09–0.09 (50%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Salei – Ericsson3:57
xG 0.05–0.09 (36%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).