Sun, Feb 13, 2011·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Anaheim Ducks 4, Edmonton Oilers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 17 | 27 | 18 | 422 |
| EDM | 05 | 04 | 03 | 012 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:34ANATeemu SelanneGWGAssists: Jason Blake, Andreas Lilja · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 15:24ANABrandon McMillanAssists: Dan Sexton, Maxim Lapierre · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 16:38ANABobby RyanAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.39 xG3–0
- P3 1:31ANABobby RyanAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Backhand, 0.19 xG4–0
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:43ANACorey Perry: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:56EDMJeff Petry: Holding2 min
- P1 18:42ANAAndreas Lilja: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:40EDMSteve MacIntyre: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:40ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:53EDMSteve MacIntyre: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:53ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Interference2 min
- P3 5:53ANAAndy Sutton: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:53EDMTheo Peckham: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:24ANALuca Sbisa: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:24EDMLadislav Smid: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:33EDMAles Hemsky: Holding2 min
- P3 11:43EDMAles Hemsky: Boarding2 min
- P3 13:56EDMLinus Omark: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cogliano won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan11:00
xG 1.33–0.19 (88%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Blake9:13
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Lapierre – McMillan – Sexton9:01
xG 0.24–0.15 (61%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Marchant – Blake – Parros2:52
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSutton – Sbisa8:43
xG 1.08–0.04 (96%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Lydman – Visnovsky11:34
xG 0.93–0.15 (86%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Visnovsky – Fowler2:08
xG 0.09–0.14 (40%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Eberle – Hall11:02
xG 0.48–0.28 (63%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Fraser – MacIntyre – Jones4:52
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Gagner – Omark – Paajarvi9:22
xG 0.12–0.33 (27%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Penner – Reddox7:28
xG 0.04–0.70 (6%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Vandermeer – Foster13:02
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Smid – Petry13:32
xG 0.58–1.35 (30%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Gilbert – Peckham12:51
xG 0.09–1.00 (8%)attempts 6–10goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).