Mon, Feb 14, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Vancouver Canucks 2, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 16 | 08 | 111 | 225 |
| STL | 211 | 114 | 09 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:10STLAndy McDonaldPPAssists: Nikita Nikitin, Alex Pietrangelo · Deflected, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 10:15VANHenrik SedinAssists: Sami Salo, Alexandre Burrows · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 12:17STLAlexander SteenUnassisted · Backhand, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 17:29STLPatrik BerglundPPGWGAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Andy McDonald · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 1:47VANJannik HansenAssists: Raffi Torres, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:01VANChristian Ehrhoff: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:29VANAlexandre Burrows: Interference2 min
- P2 6:17VANKevin Bieksa: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:12STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:09VANKevin Bieksa: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 18:44VANAaron Rome: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malhotra won the faceoff against McClement
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows14:11
xG 0.48–0.25 (66%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Malhotra – Torres – Hansen11:33
xG 0.55–0.62 (47%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Tambellini – Glass – Oreskovich5:06
xG 0.08–0.18 (31%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
- Samuelsson – Kesler – Raymond11:59
xG 0.33–0.79 (30%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Bieksa7:11
xG 0.19–0.03 (88%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Salo – Ehrhoff10:00
xG 0.62–0.53 (54%)attempts 13–12goals 2–1
- Salo – Rome2:39
xG 0.09–0.03 (77%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Crombeen – Sobotka6:32
xG 0.59–0.22 (73%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- McClement – Sobotka – D'Agostini2:16
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie3:01
xG 0.05–0.14 (26%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Steen – Oshie – Berglund8:44
xG 0.38–0.57 (40%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Johnson2:02
xG 0.35–0.04 (90%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Johnson2:23
xG 0.21–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Brewer – Colaiacovo2:48
xG 0.14–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).