Mon, Feb 14, 2011·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Washington Capitals 2, Phoenix Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 05 | 117 | 19 | 231 |
| PHX | 05 | 26 | 17 | 318 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:46WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Brooks Laich, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 9:35PHXMartin HanzalAssists: Ray Whitney, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 17:43PHXRay WhitneyPPAssists: Radim Vrbata, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 4:24PHXVernon FiddlerGWGAssists: Scottie Upshall, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 5:04WSHMatt BradleyAssists: David Steckel, Jeff Schultz · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:19PHXDerek Morris: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:17PHXPaul Bissonnette: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:13PHXRadim Vrbata: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:17WSHScott Hannan: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:11PHXEric Belanger: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:11PHXSami Lepisto: Boarding2 min
- P3 17:34WSHNicklas Backstrom: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Belanger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom12:13
xG 0.28–0.13 (68%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Bradley – Steckel – Gordon8:39
xG 0.26–0.28 (49%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Laich – Semin – Johansson11:20
xG 0.31–0.42 (43%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Chimera – Hendricks – Perreault9:03
xG 0.10–0.26 (27%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson14:56
xG 0.26–0.21 (56%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Erskine – Sloan11:32
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Hannan – Schultz18:47
xG 0.46–0.61 (43%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Vrbata – Hanzal13:03
xG 0.61–0.38 (62%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Fiddler – Upshall – Stempniak11:14
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Doan – Belanger – Pyatt12:12
xG 0.21–0.30 (41%)attempts 4–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Lepisto16:15
xG 0.60–0.32 (65%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Jovanovski – Rozsival11:55
xG 0.17–0.31 (36%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Morris – Yandle14:28
xG 0.11–0.35 (24%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).