Tue, Feb 15, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
Buffalo Sabres 3, Montréal Canadiens 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 07 | 115 | 17 | 03 | 4 | 332 |
| MTL | 118 | 18 | 05 | 03 | 3 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:54MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Roman Hamrlik · Wrist, 0.50 xG0–1
- P2 6:28MTLBenoit PouliotAssists: David Desharnais, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–2
- P2 17:48BUFDrew StaffordPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Tim Connolly · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–2
- P3 6:08BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Jochen Hecht, Nathan Gerbe · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MTL David Desharnais scored
- 2. BUF Drew Stafford stopped
- 3. MTL Tomas Plekanec scored
- 4. BUF Thomas Vanek scored
- 5. MTL Brian Gionta stopped
- 6. BUF Tyler Ennis scored
- 7. MTL Benoit Pouliot stopped
- 8. BUF Jason Pominville stopped
- 9. MTL Max Pacioretty scored
- 10. BUF Nathan Gerbe scored
- 11. MTL Scott Gomez stopped
- 12. BUF Tim Connolly stopped
- 13. MTL P.K. Subban stopped
- 14. BUF Tyler Myers stopped
- 15. MTL Andrei Kostitsyn stopped
- 16. BUF Paul Byron stopped
- 17. MTL Tom Pyatt stopped
- 18. BUF Jordan Leopold stopped
- 19. MTL James Wisniewski stopped
- 20. BUF Jochen Hecht scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:46BUFTyler Myers: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:47BUFJason Pominville: Holding2 min
- P1 19:37MTLBenoit Pouliot: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:52BUFJochen Hecht: Holding2 min
- P2 15:58MTLYannick Weber: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 1:49BUFJochen Hecht: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:35BUFMike Weber: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Hecht
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHecht – Pominville – Gerbe7:02
xG 0.77–0.12 (86%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0
- McCormick – Vanek – Byron4:33
xG 0.13–0.17 (44%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Niedermayer – Grier – Gaustad8:11
xG 0.05–0.09 (37%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- McCormick – Gerbe – Byron2:19
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Myers16:09
xG 0.60–0.43 (58%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Leopold – Butler14:45
xG 0.57–0.43 (57%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
- Morrisonn – Weber12:30
xG 0.40–0.44 (48%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Desharnais – White12:17
xG 0.45–0.04 (92%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Halpern – Darche – Pyatt6:35
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Pacioretty9:08
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Gomez – Moen – Kostitsyn8:14
xG 0.32–0.88 (27%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPicard – Subban15:38
xG 0.53–0.29 (64%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Weber – Nash10:14
xG 0.19–0.02 (89%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Picard – Weber2:39
xG 0.05–0.09 (35%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).