Tue, Feb 15, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
New York Islanders 4, Ottawa Senators 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 011 | 18 | 26 | 03 | 2 | 428 |
| OTT | 113 | 112 | 15 | 01 | 1 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:55OTTBobby ButlerPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Milan Michalek · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 8:07NYIBlake ComeauAssists: Ty Wishart, Jesse Joensuu · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 12:57OTTRyan ShannonPPAssists: Bobby Butler, Milan Michalek · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 2:48NYIMichael GrabnerSHUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 6:39NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Michael Grabner, Kyle Okposo · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 15:56OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Erik Condra, Zack Smith · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. OTT Alex Kovalev scored
- 2. NYI Rob Schremp scored
- 3. OTT Jason Spezza stopped
- 4. NYI Frans Nielsen scored
- 5. OTT Bobby Butler stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:54OTTZack Smith: Holding2 min
- P1 6:02OTTZack Smith: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 11:07NYIJack Hillen: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:48NYITy Wishart: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:54OTTErik Karlsson: Broken stick2 min
- P2 2:07NYIKyle Okposo: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:14NYITy Wishart: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:15OTTChris Neil: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 2:07NYIMilan Jurcina: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Regin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestJoensuu – Grabner – Bailey2:14
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Comeau – Joensuu – Bailey7:30
xG 0.38–0.09 (80%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner7:06
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Konopka – Schremp – Haley5:00
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinek – Hillen12:25
xG 0.71–0.36 (66%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Jurcina – Hillen2:46
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic11:23
xG 0.16–0.34 (32%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestShannon – Condra – Smith6:53
xG 0.63–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–0goals 1–0
- Kovalev – Regin – Foligno11:32
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Butler8:20
xG 0.19–0.17 (52%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Ruutu – Neil – Kelly9:42
xG 0.08–0.50 (14%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLee – Karlsson3:13
xG 0.34–0.13 (73%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Kuba – Lee9:00
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Campoli2:10
xG 0.29–0.27 (52%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).