Tue, Feb 15, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 14 | 215 | 06 | 04 | 2 | 429 |
| TBL | 012 | 36 | 08 | 01 | 1 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:42PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Claude Giroux, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 0:59TBLDominic MooreAssists: Adam Hall · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 7:33PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Andrej Meszaros · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 8:48PHIDarroll PoweUnassisted · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–1
- P2 9:55TBLVincent LecavalierPPAssists: Marc-Andre Bergeron, Martin St. Louis · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 10:48TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Pavel Kubina, Mike Vernace · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PHI Daniel Brière stopped
- 2. TBL Victor Hedman stopped
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. TBL Dominic Moore scored
- 5. PHI Mike Richards scored
- 6. TBL Adam Hall stopped
- 7. PHI Kris Versteeg stopped
- 8. TBL Simon Gagne stopped
- 9. PHI Jeff Carter stopped
- 10. TBL Vincent Lecavalier stopped
- 11. PHI Ville Leino stopped
- 12. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
- 13. PHI Kimmo Timonen scored
- 14. TBL Martin St. Louis stopped
Penalties (12)
- P1 7:13PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:13TBLRandy Jones: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:49PHIDaniel Brière: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:21TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:32PHISean O'Donnell: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:59TBLPavel Kubina: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:19PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:48TBLSteven Stamkos: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 11:34PHIMike Richards: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:34TBLSteven Stamkos: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:34PHIMike Richards: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:15TBLMattias Ohlund: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Lecavalier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Giroux – van Riemsdyk7:33
xG 0.30–0.17 (63%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Betts – Carcillo – Powe3:54
xG 0.05–0.02 (75%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino10:54
xG 0.15–0.21 (41%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Richards – Versteeg – Nodl11:49
xG 0.22–0.34 (39%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn15:31
xG 0.57–0.27 (68%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Pronger – Carle14:41
xG 0.16–0.12 (56%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Coburn – Carle2:19
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestHall – Moore – Bergenheim11:01
xG 0.57–0.33 (64%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Downie – Stamkos11:59
xG 0.25–0.17 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Gagne – Purcell12:07
xG 0.33–0.27 (56%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestClark – Bergeron6:49
xG 0.29–0.07 (81%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Clark – Hedman3:33
xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Kubina – Jones2:05
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).