Tue, Feb 15, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
San Jose Sharks 2, Nashville Predators 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 012 | 116 | 017 | 15 | 250 |
| NSH | 114 | 010 | 07 | 00 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:48NSHCody FransonPPAssists: Steve Sullivan, David Legwand · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 9:13SJSDevin SetoguchiAssists: Kent Huskins, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- OT 3:53SJSPatrick MarleauGWGAssists: Kent Huskins, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:30SJSLogan Couture: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:47NSHRyan Suter: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:21NSHShane O'Brien: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:16NSHShane O'Brien: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:35SJSDevin Setoguchi: Holding2 min
- P3 6:17NSHAlexander Sulzer: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWellwood – Clowe – Couture8:35
xG 0.29–0.09 (76%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Setoguchi12:08
xG 0.47–0.43 (53%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Heatley – Pavelski – Mitchell12:25
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Mayers – Nichol – Eager5:00
xG 0.05–0.39 (12%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWallin – Demers13:18
xG 0.59–0.17 (78%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Huskins – Vlasic14:50
xG 0.38–0.71 (35%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Boyle – Murray17:23
xG 0.33–0.96 (26%)attempts 16–23goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestWard – Goc – Wilson13:34
xG 0.50–0.24 (68%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn13:49
xG 0.71–0.52 (58%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
- Smithson – Svatos – Spaling3:48
xG 0.09–0.01 (86%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Sullivan – Legwand – Hornqvist10:15
xG 0.32–0.29 (52%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber20:01
xG 1.06–0.71 (60%)attempts 24–24goals 0–1
- Klein – Sulzer12:29
xG 0.37–0.46 (45%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Franson12:13
xG 0.08–0.18 (33%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).