Wed, Feb 16, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 218 | 18 | 19 | 435 |
| FLA | 05 | 011 | 219 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:36PHIMike RichardsAssists: Kris Versteeg, Daniel Carcillo · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 9:41PHIAndreas NodlAssists: Daniel Brière, Scott Hartnell · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 5:50PHIJames van RiemsdykGWGAssists: Daniel Brière, Chris Pronger · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–0
- P3 1:40FLARostislav OleszPPAssists: Jason Garrison, Marty Reasoner · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–1
- P3 12:29FLADavid BoothUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 19:38PHIDaniel BrièreENAssists: Andreas Nodl, Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.67 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:41PHIDaniel Carcillo: Holding2 min
- P1 2:49FLAMike Santorelli: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:48FLADarcy Hordichuk: Boarding2 min
- P1 15:49FLAStephen Weiss: Holding2 min
- P2 10:28PHIBraydon Coburn: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:12FLAMike Santorelli: Interference2 min
- P3 0:44PHIChris Pronger: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Brière
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Giroux – van Riemsdyk10:50
xG 0.50–0.19 (72%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Brière – Hartnell – Nodl11:03
xG 0.38–0.46 (45%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Shelley – Betts – Powe6:09
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
- Richards – Carcillo – Versteeg10:27
xG 0.20–0.36 (36%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPronger – Carle12:54
xG 0.78–0.25 (76%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Pronger – Timonen2:27
xG 0.08–0.00 (97%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- O'Donnell – Meszaros11:09
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Dvorak – Booth – Timmins3:20
xG 0.09–0.05 (62%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Higgins – Olesz12:08
xG 0.21–0.40 (35%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Booth – Santorelli7:18
xG 0.14–0.35 (29%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
- Stillman – Weiss – Skille10:58
xG 0.21–0.62 (25%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Wideman – Garrison2:35
xG 0.13–0.08 (60%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Allen – Callahan13:58
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Weaver – Garrison13:45
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).