Wed, Feb 16, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Colorado Avalanche 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 110 | 113 | 011 | 12 | 336 |
| COL | 011 | 212 | 07 | 01 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:27PITJoe VitaleAssists: Brett Sterling, Paul Martin · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 3:24COLChris StewartAssists: David Jones, John-Michael Liles · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 14:19COLCameron GaunceAssists: Matt Hunwick, Paul Stastny · Snap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 14:51PITJordan StaalAssists: Nick Johnson, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- OT 4:10PITTyler KennedyPPGWGAssists: Jordan Staal, Alex Goligoski · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P2 0:43COLPaul Stastny: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:01COLRyan Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:01PITNick Johnson: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:36COLRyan O'Byrne: Holding2 min
- P2 16:58PITJoe Vitale: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:20PITCraig Adams: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:33COLRyan O'Byrne: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:06COLCody McLeod: Holding2 min
- OT 3:34COLKevin Porter: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestRupp – Talbot – Conner6:49
xG 0.39–0.12 (76%)attempts 15–1goals 0–0
- Craig – Vitale – Wallace2:53
xG 0.16–0.09 (65%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Sterling – Johnson – Staal7:41
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Adams – Dupuis – Kennedy9:12
xG 0.40–0.47 (46%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Goligoski2:02
xG 0.24–0.15 (61%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Martin – Michalek14:24
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Martin – Letang2:28
xG 0.14–0.07 (68%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestJones – Stastny – Stewart10:59
xG 0.75–0.41 (65%)attempts 15–17goals 2–0
- Yip – Winnik – O'Reilly10:19
xG 0.23–0.14 (63%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Dupuis – McLeod2:51
xG 0.01–0.07 (17%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Porter – Olver6:14
xG 0.20–0.40 (34%)attempts 5–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Shattenkirk5:12
xG 0.19–0.04 (81%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- O'Byrne – Wilson2:33
xG 0.11–0.02 (85%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Wilson – Shattenkirk10:48
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).