Wed, Feb 16, 2011·Honda Center, Anaheim
Washington Capitals 7, Anaheim Ducks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 210 | 211 | 310 | 731 |
| ANA | 39 | 27 | 15 | 621 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:10ANARyan GetzlafPPAssists: Jason Blake, Bobby Ryan · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 10:43WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Karl Alzner · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 16:07WSHBrooks LaichUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P1 18:05ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Saku Koivu, Luca Sbisa · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P1 19:29ANAToni LydmanAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P2 6:21ANACorey PerrySHAssists: Luca Sbisa, Brandon McMillan · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P2 7:52WSHDavid SteckelAssists: Boyd Gordon, Matt Hendricks · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–4
- P2 9:41WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Marcus Johansson, Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.24 xG4–4
- P2 13:18ANALubomir VisnovskyAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–5
- P3 0:58WSHMike KnubleAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–5
- P3 5:51ANABobby RyanAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry · Slap, 0.11 xG5–6
- P3 11:37WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Scott Hannan, Matt Hendricks · Tip-in, 0.27 xG6–6
- P3 18:13WSHAlexander SeminGWGAssists: Brooks Laich, Karl Alzner · Backhand, 0.08 xG7–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:40WSHTyler Sloan: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:04ANAAndy Sutton: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:47ANAAndy Sutton: Boarding2 min
- P2 16:47ANAAndy Sutton: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:47WSHJohn Erskine: Instigator2 min
- P2 16:47WSHJohn Erskine: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:47WSHJohn Erskine: Misconduct10 min
- P2 18:57WSHJason Chimera: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 8:46ANADan Sexton: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:37WSHMathieu Perreault: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:37ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Steckel – Gordon10:15
xG 0.62–0.30 (68%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Bradley – Chimera – Perreault8:06
xG 0.34–0.14 (70%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Knuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom17:50
xG 0.59–0.48 (55%)attempts 14–11goals 1–2
- Laich – Semin – Johansson13:12
xG 0.46–0.47 (49%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Schultz17:00
xG 0.74–0.39 (65%)attempts 14–11goals 1–2
- Erskine – Sloan7:41
xG 0.37–0.05 (88%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson17:17
xG 1.00–0.89 (53%)attempts 19–14goals 4–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Marchant – Parros – Ryan2:22
xG 0.04–0.02 (68%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Blake13:45
xG 0.74–0.75 (50%)attempts 10–14goals 1–2
- Lapierre – McMillan – Sexton9:08
xG 0.03–0.38 (6%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan17:06
xG 0.52–1.19 (30%)attempts 14–17goals 3–3
Defence pairs
- Beauchemin – Sbisa2:56
xG 0.05–0.05 (51%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Lilja – Fowler5:47
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Lydman – Visnovsky17:29
xG 0.73–0.85 (46%)attempts 15–15goals 3–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).