Thu, Feb 17, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Detroit Red Wings 6, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 29 | 211 | 211 | 631 |
| TBL | 011 | 29 | 020 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:40DETDaniel ClearyPPAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Henrik Zetterberg · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 14:57DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Daniel Cleary, Niklas Kronwall · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 11:51TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Simon Gagne · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 14:38TBLSteve DownieAssists: Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 16:34DETNiklas KronwallPPGWGAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Nicklas Lidstrom · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 18:00DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Tomas Holmstrom, Jakub Kindl · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–2
- P3 11:39DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Jiri Hudler, Daniel Cleary · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–2
- P3 18:09DETDarren HelmUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG6–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:01TBLRandy Jones: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P1 6:51DETJiri Hudler: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:13DETJakub Kindl: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 7:53TBLDwayne Roloson: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P2 15:23TBLVincent Lecavalier: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 18:57DETJonathan Ericsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:35DETJustin Abdelkader: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hudler won the faceoff against Moore
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHolmstrom – Miller – Abdelkader7:15
xG 0.47–0.05 (90%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Cleary – Datsyuk – Hudler10:01
xG 0.51–0.38 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Draper – Eaves – Helm7:48
xG 0.40–0.49 (45%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Zetterberg – Franzen11:31
xG 0.43–0.54 (44%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRafalski – Kindl3:13
xG 0.34–0.03 (91%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Kindl3:35
xG 0.14–0.03 (81%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Stuart – Kronwall3:07
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestHall – Moore – Bergenheim3:56
xG 0.16–0.02 (87%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Downie – Stamkos12:25
xG 0.51–0.39 (57%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Hall – Thompson – Tyrell2:57
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Gagne – Purcell10:42
xG 0.59–0.86 (41%)attempts 13–16goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestBergeron – Hedman2:16
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Clark – Hedman8:24
xG 0.22–0.19 (53%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Clark – Kubina2:24
xG 0.04–0.03 (59%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).