Thu, Feb 17, 2011·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Atlanta Thrashers 3, Phoenix Coyotes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 115 | 210 | 011 | 336 |
| PHX | 28 | 216 | 08 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:41PHXEric BelangerSHAssists: Lauri Korpikoski · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 5:03ATLChris ThorburnPPAssists: Toby Enstrom, Rich Peverley · Wrist, 0.44 xG1–1
- P1 11:37PHXShane DoanAssists: Derek Morris, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 4:10ATLAndrew LaddPPAssists: Rich Peverley, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 9:29ATLRich PeverleyAssists: Toby Enstrom, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 15:44PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–3
- P2 19:34PHXMartin HanzalGWGAssists: Ray Whitney, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:19PHXMikkel Boedker: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:28PHXRadim Vrbata: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 17:03PHXMikkel Boedker: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 14:59ATLPatrice Cormier: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 18:25PHXShane Doan: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:27ATLDustin Byfuglien: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Antropov won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestStapleton – Machacek – Cormier7:43
xG 0.67–0.23 (75%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Boulton – Thorburn – Peverley7:28
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Ladd – Peverley – Little5:52
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Ladd – Bergfors – Little7:05
xG 0.13–0.28 (32%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bogosian17:40
xG 0.71–0.62 (53%)attempts 10–22goals 0–1
- Enstrom – Byfuglien17:06
xG 0.73–0.75 (49%)attempts 28–15goals 1–0
- Sopel – Oduya14:25
xG 0.26–0.55 (32%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Belanger – Korpikoski11:07
xG 0.55–0.08 (88%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal13:29
xG 0.81–0.43 (65%)attempts 18–18goals 1–1
- Fiddler – Upshall – Stempniak11:32
xG 0.26–0.41 (38%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Bissonnette – Ebbett – Boedker4:42
xG 0.05–0.25 (16%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Yandle16:52
xG 1.11–0.26 (81%)attempts 20–12goals 2–0
- Jovanovski – Rozsival9:56
xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Morris – Lepisto2:10
xG 0.10–0.03 (78%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).