Fri, Feb 18, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Boston Bruins 4, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 05 | 113 | 315 | 433 |
| OTT | 012 | 18 | 114 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:50OTTBobby ButlerAssists: Jason Spezza, Milan Michalek · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 6:47BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Tyler Seguin, Andrew Ference · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 9:47BOSNathan HortonAssists: David Krejci, Andrew Ference · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 15:20BOSDennis SeidenbergPPGWGAssists: Nathan Horton, David Krejci · Snap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 15:52BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Mark Recchi · Snap, 0.15 xG4–1
- P3 18:30OTTAlex KovalevPPAssists: Filip Kuba, Peter Regin · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:29OTTFrancis Lessard: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:55OTTNick Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:47OTTErik Karlsson: Holding2 min
- P2 19:42OTTMatt Carkner: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:30BOSMark Recchi: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:38BOSNathan Horton: Holding2 min
- P3 13:45OTTRyan Shannon: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:15BOSChris Kelly: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Regin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Krejci – Lucic10:25
xG 0.82–0.22 (79%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Recchi – Bergeron – Marchand10:47
xG 0.54–0.34 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille7:22
xG 0.12–0.26 (32%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Ryder – Kelly – Seguin7:03
xG 0.04–0.26 (14%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Seidenberg12:00
xG 0.90–0.30 (75%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Ference – McQuaid13:09
xG 0.50–0.50 (50%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Chara – Kampfer13:51
xG 0.27–0.43 (39%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Neil – Condra – Smith9:00
xG 0.23–0.20 (53%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Lessard – Shannon – Greening4:14
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Regin – Foligno12:54
xG 0.39–0.53 (42%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Spezza – Michalek – Butler13:41
xG 0.42–0.64 (39%)attempts 17–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson15:25
xG 0.57–0.50 (53%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Phillips – Lee12:30
xG 0.37–0.31 (54%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Carkner – Benoit9:44
xG 0.22–0.50 (31%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).