Fri, Feb 18, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Anaheim Ducks 1, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 16 | 013 | 011 | 130 |
| MIN | 29 | 211 | 16 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:30ANACorey PerryAssists: Bobby Ryan, Ryan Getzlaf · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 5:01MINMikko KoivuAssists: Andrew Brunette, Antti Miettinen · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 15:07MINMatt CullenSHGWGAssists: Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 13:32MINEric NystromPPAssists: John Madden · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 13:59MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Nick Schultz · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–4
- P3 16:49MINMartin HavlatPPAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Pierre-Marc Bouchard · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:07MINMarek Zidlicky: Interference2 min
- P1 12:59MINMatt Cullen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 14:56MINBrent Burns: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:56MINBrent Burns: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:15ANABobby Ryan: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:52ANABrandon McMillan: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:38ANAMaxim Lapierre: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:34MINBrent Burns: Interference2 min
- P3 15:40ANATodd Marchant: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan10:24
xG 0.53–0.11 (83%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Parros – Lapierre – Chipchura3:02
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Marchant – McMillan – Sexton2:31
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Blake10:34
xG 0.62–0.58 (52%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Visnovsky4:28
xG 0.36–0.03 (91%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Sutton – Sbisa9:35
xG 0.35–0.17 (67%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Fowler10:12
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Brunette – Miettinen – Brodziak6:19
xG 0.23–0.24 (49%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Cullen – Havlat – Bouchard9:54
xG 0.38–0.43 (46%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Brunette – Kobasew – Brodziak2:57
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Madden – Nystrom – Clutterbuck9:02
xG 0.13–0.33 (28%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Burns14:44
xG 0.73–0.37 (66%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Zidlicky – Spurgeon2:11
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Barker – Spurgeon6:19
xG 0.09–0.20 (30%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).