Sat, Feb 19, 2011·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Atlanta Thrashers 3, Edmonton Oilers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 16 | 116 | 19 | 331 |
| EDM | 06 | 15 | 415 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:37ATLDustin ByfuglienUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 0:59ATLAndrew LaddAssists: Blake Wheeler, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 14:57EDMMagnus PaajarviAssists: Linus Omark, Tom Gilbert · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 1:12ATLEvander KaneAssists: Zach Bogosian, Ron Hainsey · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 1:42EDMTaylor HallPPAssists: Ales Hemsky, Kurtis Foster · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–2
- P3 2:21EDMTaylor HallPPAssists: Ales Hemsky, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–3
- P3 14:35EDMTaylor HallPPGWGAssists: Sam Gagner, Ladislav Smid · Wrist, 0.46 xG3–4
- P3 19:48EDMAles HemskyENAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Theo Peckham · Wrist, 0.64 xG3–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:59ATLBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:51ATLZach Bogosian: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:42EDMJordan Eberle: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 7:20ATLDustin Byfuglien: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:50EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:50ATLMark Stuart: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:57EDMDustin Penner: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:48EDMSam Gagner: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:51EDMTheo Peckham: Interference2 min
- P3 0:40ATLToby Enstrom: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:19ATLChris Thorburn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:01ATLToby Enstrom: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:10EDMDustin Penner: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:44ATLNik Antropov: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestAntropov – Stewart – Kane5:31
xG 0.62–0.06 (91%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little5:44
xG 0.61–0.17 (78%)attempts 11–3goals 1–1
- Ladd – Little – Machacek3:12
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Antropov – Machacek – Kane2:31
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bogosian5:57
xG 0.47–0.26 (65%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien14:36
xG 0.60–0.48 (55%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Stuart – Bogosian5:18
xG 0.24–0.16 (61%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Jones – Gagner – Paajarvi2:53
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Gagner – Omark – Paajarvi6:48
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Jacques – Jones – Reddox4:03
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
- Cogliano – Eberle – Hall11:03
xG 0.80–1.04 (44%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Vandermeer – Foster7:34
xG 0.32–0.62 (34%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Smid11:50
xG 0.43–0.74 (37%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
- Chorney – Peckham12:46
xG 0.41–0.74 (35%)attempts 6–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).