Sat, Feb 19, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Anaheim Ducks 3, St. Louis Blues 9
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 36 | 010 | 09 | 325 |
| STL | 411 | 410 | 12 | 923 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:20ANAJarkko RuutuAssists: Brandon McMillan · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 6:41ANATeemu SelanneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 10:24STLAndy McDonaldAssists: T.J. Oshie, David Backes · Deflected, 0.03 xG2–1
- P1 10:31STLT.J. OshieAssists: Alexander Steen, Carlo Colaiacovo · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- P1 14:28STLCarlo ColaiacovoPPAssists: David Backes, Alexander Steen · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P1 16:42ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Todd Marchant · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P1 18:24STLAndy McDonaldGWGAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Barret Jackman · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–4
- P2 7:50STLDavid BackesAssists: Brad Boyes · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–5
- P2 12:54STLT.J. OshieAssists: Patrik Berglund, Alex Pietrangelo · Snap, 0.06 xG3–6
- P2 15:21STLChris StewartPPAssists: Andy McDonald, Alex Pietrangelo · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–7
- P2 17:10STLChris StewartPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk · Tip-in, 0.26 xG3–8
- P3 7:21STLAlexander SteenSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–9
Penalties (15)
- P1 2:22STLCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:22ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:23ANACorey Perry: Interference2 min
- P1 6:15STLKevin Shattenkirk: Interference2 min
- P1 12:49ANAJason Blake: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 11:05STLBarret Jackman: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:16ANACam Fowler: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:48ANACorey Perry: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 16:19ANATeemu Selanne: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 16:19ANATeemu Selanne: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:14ANALuca Sbisa: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:14STLMatt D'Agostini: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:37STLBarret Jackman: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:05ANAAndy Sutton: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:05STLRoman Polak: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan13:19
xG 0.35–0.16 (69%)attempts 8–7goals 1–2
- Marchant – Parros – Lapierre2:59
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Marchant – Ruutu – McMillan6:48
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Blake7:13
xG 0.18–0.26 (41%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Sutton – Lilja3:08
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Sbisa2:30
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Fowler9:51
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Oshie – Berglund8:48
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Boyes – Winchester – Sobotka9:46
xG 0.11–0.04 (75%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Janssen – Crombeen – D'Agostini5:57
xG 0.23–0.37 (39%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- McDonald – Backes – Stewart10:12
xG 0.16–0.38 (30%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Shattenkirk13:50
xG 0.44–0.22 (67%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Jackman – Pietrangelo15:20
xG 0.45–0.44 (51%)attempts 14–11goals 2–1
- Jackman – Polak2:12
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).