Sat, Feb 19, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Phoenix Coyotes 3, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 05 | 210 | 111 | 326 |
| NSH | 04 | 110 | 118 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:51PHXShane DoanAssists: Keith Yandle, Eric Belanger · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 4:49PHXTaylor PyattAssists: Andrew Ebbett · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 6:37NSHSergei KostitsynPPAssists: Mike Fisher, Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 7:32PHXLauri KorpikoskiGWGAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Derek Morris · Slap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 19:10NSHShea WeberAssists: Martin Erat, Patric Hornqvist · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:42PHXScottie Upshall: Interference2 min
- P1 9:43NSHMartin Erat: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:16PHXMartin Hanzal: Holding2 min
- P2 5:48PHXShane Doan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 8:06NSHJ-P Dumont: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:40NSHRyan Suter: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 6:52NSHPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:52PHXTaylor Pyatt: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:28NSHShane O'Brien: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:12PHXKeith Yandle: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smithson won the faceoff against Belanger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Ebbett – Boedker2:30
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal2:24
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Upshall – Stempniak10:01
xG 0.38–0.39 (49%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Doan – Belanger – Korpikoski10:50
xG 0.31–0.36 (46%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestYonkman – Ekman-Larsson6:48
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Morris – Lepisto2:33
xG 0.11–0.04 (74%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Lepisto12:28
xG 0.33–0.28 (55%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSullivan – Legwand – Hornqvist3:04
xG 0.21–0.05 (82%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Smithson – Ward – Wilson6:07
xG 0.20–0.09 (70%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn4:04
xG 0.15–0.11 (57%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Sullivan – Fisher – Hornqvist3:59
xG 0.15–0.16 (48%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Franson6:06
xG 0.67–0.22 (75%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Suter – Weber13:00
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Weber – Sulzer2:38
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).