Sat, Feb 19, 2011·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Dallas Stars 2, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 111 | 05 | 18 | 224 |
| VAN | 114 | 113 | 311 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:46VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 4:36DALJames NealAssists: Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 6:29VANRaffi TorresAssists: Aaron Rome · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 7:39VANDaniel SedinGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexandre Burrows · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 13:33DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–3
- P3 15:53VANHenrik SedinAssists: Daniel Sedin, Alexandre Burrows · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 16:26VANRaffi TorresAssists: Manny Malhotra, Jannik Hansen · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:52DALBrenden Morrow: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:52VANRaffi Torres: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:16VANChristian Ehrhoff: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:24VANSami Salo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:05DALKarlis Skrastins: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:37DALBrian Sutherby: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:31VANTanner Glass: Holding2 min
- P3 0:00DALTrevor Daley: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00VANAaron Rome: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Malhotra
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestLangenbrunner – Morrow – Ribeiro11:17
xG 0.73–0.57 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 1–2
- Neal – Wandell – Vincour2:13
xG 0.14–0.07 (67%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Sutherby – Williams – Wandell3:30
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Petersen – Wandell – Vincour2:53
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkrastins – Niskanen13:56
xG 0.59–0.35 (63%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Robidas – Fistric12:44
xG 0.25–0.35 (42%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Robidas – Skrastins2:58
xG 0.23–0.36 (39%)attempts 4–3goals 0–3
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMalhotra – Torres – Hansen10:22
xG 0.38–0.21 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Samuelsson – Kesler – Raymond12:39
xG 0.47–0.32 (60%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows12:16
xG 0.75–0.62 (55%)attempts 20–7goals 3–2
- Tambellini – Glass – Oreskovich6:14
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Oberg10:00
xG 0.91–0.11 (89%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Sauve14:25
xG 0.61–0.38 (62%)attempts 21–12goals 2–1
- Salo – Ehrhoff5:24
xG 0.07–0.06 (52%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).