Sat, Feb 19, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Colorado Avalanche 0, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 08 | 011 | 06 | 025 |
| SJS | 317 | 04 | 112 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:29SJSDevin SetoguchiGWGAssists: Jason Demers, Douglas Murray · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 14:54SJSDevin SetoguchiPPAssists: Logan Couture, Ian White · Slap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 16:38SJSRyane ClowePPAssists: Logan Couture, Joe Thornton · Snap, 0.13 xG0–3
- P3 18:38SJSDevin SetoguchiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:16SJSJamal Mayers: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:16COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:16SJSScott Nichol: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:16COLMark Olver: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:50SJSBen Eager: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:40COLRyan O'Byrne: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:40COLPeter Budaj: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 2:25SJSKent Huskins: Holding2 min
- P2 12:19SJSDevin Setoguchi: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:36COLDavid Jones: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestJones – Stastny – Stoa8:54
xG 0.44–0.12 (79%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Dupuis – McLeod – Olver2:15
xG 0.17–0.11 (61%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- McClement – Yip – Winnik6:17
xG 0.22–0.19 (53%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Dupuis – McLeod – O'Reilly4:45
xG 0.04–0.04 (52%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Gaunce8:54
xG 0.45–0.16 (74%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Liles – O'Byrne10:06
xG 0.60–0.36 (62%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – Wilson4:11
xG 0.06–0.08 (42%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Pavelski – Mitchell10:09
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Mayers – Clowe – Couture3:01
xG 0.08–0.02 (78%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Setoguchi11:09
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 2–9goals 2–0
- Wellwood – Clowe – Couture8:03
xG 0.22–0.51 (30%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWallin – White12:29
xG 0.49–0.19 (72%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Huskins – Demers13:21
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Boyle – Murray16:00
xG 0.36–0.93 (28%)attempts 10–22goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).