Sun, Feb 20, 2011·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Washington Capitals 2, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 016 | 118 | 15 | 239 |
| BUF | 08 | 110 | 011 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:09WSHMathieu PerreaultAssists: Matt Hendricks, Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 8:52BUFJason PominvillePPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Tim Connolly · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 10:20WSHMarcus JohanssonPPGWGAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:13BUFJochen Hecht: Elbowing2 min
- P1 13:39BUFTyler Myers: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:05BUFPaul Gaustad: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:06BUFShaone Morrisonn: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:20WSHBrooks Laich: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 2:23WSHMathieu Perreault: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:15BUFShaone Morrisonn: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBradley – Steckel – Gordon8:37
xG 0.42–0.06 (87%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Laich – Semin – Johansson10:36
xG 0.23–0.23 (51%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Chimera – Hendricks – Perreault7:41
xG 0.14–0.27 (34%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Knuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom11:50
xG 0.22–0.54 (29%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Schultz16:35
xG 0.54–0.37 (59%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Sloan – Schultz2:12
xG 0.08–0.06 (57%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Erskine – Sloan11:15
xG 0.29–0.33 (46%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHecht – Pominville – Vanek10:35
xG 0.66–0.33 (66%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Connolly – Stafford – Ennis10:45
xG 0.39–0.29 (57%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Niedermayer – Grier – Gaustad9:16
xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- McCormick – Kaleta – Gerbe3:42
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorrisonn – Weber13:10
xG 0.42–0.20 (68%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Butler – Myers14:53
xG 0.43–0.35 (55%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Leopold – Montador15:07
xG 0.36–0.53 (41%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).