Sun, Feb 20, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
Philadelphia Flyers 4, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 19 | 212 | 13 | 424 |
| NYR | 114 | 010 | 115 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:43NYRWojtek WolskiAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Michael Sauer · Wrist, 0.41 xG0–1
- P1 16:42PHIJeff CarterAssists: Claude Giroux, Scott Hartnell · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 12:52PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Jeff Carter, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 16:26PHIDaniel CarcilloGWGAssists: Braydon Coburn, Darroll Powe · Backhand, 0.22 xG3–1
- P3 5:28NYRDerek StepanAssists: Dan Girardi, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 19:14PHIKris VersteegENAssists: Braydon Coburn, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.58 xG4–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 17:02NYRBrian Boyle: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:03NYRDerek Stepan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:29NYRWojtek Wolski: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestShelley – Carcillo – Powe6:35
xG 0.33–0.15 (68%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Brière – Nodl – Leino14:02
xG 0.31–0.46 (41%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Richards – Versteeg – van Riemsdyk13:29
xG 0.19–0.98 (16%)attempts 10–20goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Carter – Giroux11:35
xG 0.22–1.09 (17%)attempts 11–18goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn13:21
xG 0.50–0.37 (57%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Coburn – Carle3:53
xG 0.15–0.05 (76%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Pronger – Timonen2:49
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestWolski – Stepan – Zuccarello14:58
xG 1.86–0.24 (88%)attempts 32–6goals 2–0
- Dubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov13:23
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Prospal – Gaborik – Christensen4:04
xG 0.09–0.02 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Prospal – Christensen – Wolski3:23
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSauer – McDonagh19:32
xG 1.84–0.61 (75%)attempts 37–12goals 1–2
- Staal – Girardi19:47
xG 0.76–0.34 (69%)attempts 20–14goals 1–0
- Staal – Sauer2:14
xG 0.03–0.03 (49%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).