Sun, Feb 20, 2011·United Center, Chicago
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 07 | 111 | 18 | 00 | 0 | 226 |
| CHI | 113 | 08 | 17 | 03 | 1 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:07CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Jonathan Toews, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 13:52PITMatt CookeSHAssists: Max Talbot, Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 1:09CHIBryan BickellAssists: Dave Bolland, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 16:42PITBrett SterlingAssists: Jordan Staal, Tyler Kennedy · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CHI Jonathan Toews stopped
- 2. PIT Pascal Dupuis stopped
- 3. CHI Patrick Sharp stopped
- 4. PIT Kris Letang stopped
- 5. CHI Patrick Kane scored
- 6. PIT Tyler Kennedy stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:09CHIPatrick Sharp: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 2:51PITJordan Staal: Holding2 min
- P2 7:42CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:28PITCraig Adams: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:37PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:30CHIMarian Hossa: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Cooke – Kennedy – Vitale2:23
xG 0.04–0.04 (51%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Rupp – Talbot – Conner7:32
xG 0.06–0.14 (30%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Sterling – Staal9:06
xG 0.60–0.69 (46%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Craig – Vitale – Wallace5:47
xG 0.16–0.27 (37%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Goligoski3:14
xG 0.34–0.11 (75%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Engelland – Goligoski11:19
xG 0.15–0.24 (38%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Orpik – Letang15:37
xG 0.59–0.95 (38%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Toews – Kane11:54
xG 1.21–0.40 (75%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Johnson – Kopecky – Stalberg6:10
xG 0.22–0.02 (93%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Dowell – Brouwer – Frolik12:20
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Hossa – Bolland – Bickell11:09
xG 0.17–0.11 (60%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Leddy17:28
xG 0.51–0.08 (86%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Seabrook – Hjalmarsson14:49
xG 0.82–0.54 (60%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Campbell – Hendry9:20
xG 0.11–0.07 (60%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).