Sun, Feb 20, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Detroit Red Wings 2, Minnesota Wild 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 013 | 08 | 114 | 04 | 2 | 239 |
| MIN | 08 | 05 | 111 | 02 | 0 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 1:10DETNicklas LidstromAssists: Jiri Hudler, Brad Stuart · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 4:50MINMartin HavlatAssists: Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. DET Pavel Datsyuk scored
- 2. MIN Pierre-Marc Bouchard stopped
- 3. DET Jiri Hudler stopped
- 4. MIN Matt Cullen stopped
- 5. DET Todd Bertuzzi scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:50DETJohan Franzen: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:35MINJohn Madden: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:19MINCody Almond: Holding2 min
- P2 17:15DETNiklas Kronwall: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:30DETJohan Franzen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Datsyuk – Hudler12:20
xG 0.95–0.14 (87%)attempts 19–5goals 1–1
- Holmstrom – Miller – Abdelkader5:58
xG 0.16–0.08 (67%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Draper – Eaves – Helm10:36
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Zetterberg – Franzen13:41
xG 0.23–0.50 (31%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalei – Kronwall14:13
xG 0.81–0.24 (77%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Lidstrom – Stuart15:02
xG 0.48–0.35 (58%)attempts 19–8goals 1–1
- Rafalski – Ericsson13:43
xG 0.33–0.37 (48%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Havlat – Bouchard10:51
xG 0.48–0.21 (69%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Brunette – Miettinen – Brodziak14:13
xG 0.37–0.37 (49%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
- Madden – Kobasew – Nystrom3:03
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Madden – Nystrom – Clutterbuck8:31
xG 0.03–0.75 (4%)attempts 3–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Burns14:51
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Barker – Spurgeon2:02
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Barker9:27
xG 0.07–0.34 (16%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).