Mon, Feb 21, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Chicago Blackhawks 5, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 09 | 410 | 17 | 526 |
| STL | 215 | 014 | 15 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:04STLAndy McDonaldPPAssists: Patrik Berglund, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–1
- P1 16:49STLBrad BoyesAssists: T.J. Oshie, Brad Winchester · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 2:18CHIViktor StalbergAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Ryan Johnson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 3:18CHIDave BollandAssists: Marian Hossa, Bryan Bickell · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 6:29CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 12:40CHIJonathan ToewsPPGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.50 xG4–2
- P3 8:48STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: T.J. Oshie, Patrik Berglund · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 19:59CHIMarian HossaENAssists: Brent Seabrook, Ryan Johnson · Deflected, 0.67 xG5–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 14:24CHITroy Brouwer: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:14STLDavid Backes: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:27CHIPatrick Kane: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Bolland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Kopecky – Stalberg5:54
xG 0.18–0.12 (61%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Dowell – Brouwer – Frolik11:27
xG 0.22–0.15 (58%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Sharp – Toews – Kane16:16
xG 0.97–0.95 (51%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Hossa – Bolland – Bickell11:05
xG 0.29–0.65 (31%)attempts 5–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Hjalmarsson13:07
xG 0.58–0.30 (65%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook2:00
xG 0.15–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Campbell – Keith7:20
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Oshie – Berglund12:26
xG 0.62–0.24 (72%)attempts 18–4goals 1–0
- McDonald – Backes – Stewart10:20
xG 0.64–0.33 (66%)attempts 16–10goals 0–2
- Steen – Backes – Oshie2:04
xG 0.22–0.02 (91%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Boyes – Winchester – Sobotka7:06
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Polak12:20
xG 0.69–0.29 (70%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Shattenkirk16:04
xG 0.78–0.38 (67%)attempts 21–8goals 1–1
- Jackman – Pietrangelo13:29
xG 0.91–0.57 (62%)attempts 15–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).