Mon, Feb 21, 2011·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Washington Capitals 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 114 | 03 | 124 |
| PIT | 018 | 07 | 014 | 039 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:38WSHAlex OvechkinPPGWGAssists: Marcus Johansson, Mike Knuble · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:30PITTyler Kennedy: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:38WSHAlexander Semin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:23WSHScott Hannan: Holding2 min
- P1 17:38WSHJason Chimera: Interference2 min
- P2 5:18PITMatt Cooke: Interference2 min
- P2 8:10WSHMatt Bradley: Charging2 min
- P2 8:10PITJordan Staal: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:26WSHMatt Bradley: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:26PITRyan Craig: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:16PITJoe Vitale: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBradley – Steckel – King3:36
xG 0.73–0.08 (90%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Chimera – Gordon – Perreault5:04
xG 0.08–0.08 (52%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bradley – Chimera – Steckel2:02
xG 0.06–0.11 (34%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Knuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom12:02
xG 0.31–0.42 (42%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestErskine – Sloan10:31
xG 0.56–0.22 (71%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Hannan – Schultz17:01
xG 0.84–0.54 (61%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson14:40
xG 0.29–0.54 (35%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestRupp – Talbot – Conner4:57
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Adams – Cooke – Kennedy7:14
xG 0.18–0.04 (80%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Staal2:41
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Craig – Vitale – Wallace4:23
xG 0.11–0.09 (55%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrait – Lovejoy9:39
xG 0.28–0.09 (75%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Michalek – Lovejoy2:06
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Engelland – Michalek7:58
xG 0.15–0.04 (78%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).