Tue, Feb 22, 2011·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New York Islanders 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 113 | 09 | 129 |
| TOR | 19 | 011 | 15 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:13TORClarke MacArthurAssists: Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 8:09NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Andrew MacDonald · Backhand, 0.33 xG1–1
- P3 15:19TORPhil KesselGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 5:33TORCarl Gunnarsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:12TORKeith Aulie: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:15TORBrett Lebda: Interference2 min
- P1 17:53NYIJosh Bailey: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:02TORMike Komisarek: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:20NYIZenon Konopka: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:19TORJoffrey Lupul: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:30TORMikhail Grabovski: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:10TORColby Armstrong: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 4:10NYIMicheal Haley: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 4:10NYIMicheal Haley: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:10TORMike Brown: Misconduct10 min
- P3 4:10NYITravis Hamonic: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00TORJay Rosehill: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00NYIZenon Konopka: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00NYIZenon Konopka: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Grabner6:19
xG 0.31–0.08 (79%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Comeau – Joensuu – Bailey10:11
xG 0.51–0.36 (59%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Konopka – Haley – Martin7:24
xG 0.13–0.03 (81%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares7:14
xG 0.16–0.27 (37%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGervais – Wishart2:49
xG 0.24–0.03 (88%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Wishart – Hillen4:01
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Gervais – Hillen8:24
xG 0.40–0.31 (57%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Sjostrom – Brent – Rosehill3:07
xG 0.01–0.10 (13%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Armstrong – Boyce – Brown4:56
xG 0.11–0.24 (32%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin11:41
xG 0.35–0.52 (40%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak9:05
xG 0.16–0.34 (32%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Schenn11:26
xG 0.59–0.41 (59%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Komisarek – Lebda6:07
xG 0.14–0.07 (67%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Komisarek – Gunnarsson2:58
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).