Tue, Feb 22, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Phoenix Coyotes 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 09 | 07 | 27 | 16 | 329 |
| PHI | 111 | 011 | 115 | 02 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:24PHIVille LeinoAssists: Matt Carle, Daniel Brière · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P3 2:44PHXEric BelangerAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Vernon Fiddler · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P3 10:30PHXTaylor PyattAssists: Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 18:47PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jeff Carter, Mike Richards · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–2
- OT 2:41PHXShane DoanPPGWGAssists: Radim Vrbata, Keith Yandle · Snap, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 11:54PHXLee Stempniak: Holding2 min
- P1 12:14PHIScott Hartnell: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:17PHXScottie Upshall: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:34PHXNolan Yonkman: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:58PHXNolan Yonkman: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:58PHIJody Shelley: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:57PHIAndrej Meszaros: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:25PHIAndrej Meszaros: Boarding2 min
- P3 10:57PHXVernon Fiddler: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 14:34PHXMichal Rozsival: Tripping2 min
- OT 1:36PHIKimmo Timonen: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBissonnette – Ebbett – Boedker4:20
xG 0.39–0.07 (84%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Vrbata – Hanzal10:33
xG 0.53–0.27 (66%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Fiddler – Upshall – Stempniak5:21
xG 0.05–0.15 (23%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Fiddler – Upshall – Boedker3:59
xG 0.06–0.25 (19%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYonkman – Ekman-Larsson4:09
xG 0.26–0.03 (91%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Morris – Yandle15:35
xG 0.80–0.64 (56%)attempts 18–16goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Yandle3:14
xG 0.15–0.04 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Carter – Giroux10:28
xG 1.26–0.61 (67%)attempts 20–9goals 0–1
- Brière – Nodl – Leino10:47
xG 0.33–0.10 (76%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Richards – Versteeg – van Riemsdyk6:51
xG 0.08–0.01 (87%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Shelley – Carcillo – Powe3:02
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn7:28
xG 0.60–0.30 (66%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Pronger – Carle10:41
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Carle – Meszaros2:56
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).