Tue, Feb 22, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Edmonton Oilers 1, Minnesota Wild 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 08 | 17 | 06 | 121 |
| MIN | 05 | 17 | 311 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:23MINMartin HavlatAssists: Greg Zanon, Clayton Stoner · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 17:37EDMKurtis FosterAssists: Linus Omark, Sam Gagner · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 1:28MINKyle BrodziakGWGAssists: Nick Schultz, Pierre-Marc Bouchard · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 6:33MINJared SpurgeonPPAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Pierre-Marc Bouchard · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 14:33MINPierre-Marc BouchardAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, John Madden · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:16EDMTaylor Chorney: Cross checking2 min
- P1 4:55EDMAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:48MINCam Barker: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:14MINClayton Stoner: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:55MINAndrew Brunette: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:26EDMTheo Peckham: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 10:07EDMJean-Francois Jacques: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:39MINBrent Burns: Holding2 min
- P3 12:09MINMarek Zidlicky: Holding2 min
- P3 15:17EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:17MINBrad Staubitz: Charging2 min
- P3 15:17EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:17MINBrad Staubitz: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:17MINPierre-Marc Bouchard: Delaying game bench2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Almond won the faceoff against Reddox
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJacques – Jones – Reddox7:07
xG 0.31–0.07 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Hemsky – Penner9:49
xG 0.31–0.23 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Eberle – Hall11:52
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Gagner – Omark – Paajarvi9:11
xG 0.13–0.46 (22%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestVandermeer – Peckham3:56
xG 0.46–0.09 (83%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Smid – Peckham2:59
xG 0.03–0.03 (49%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Foster – Gilbert2:59
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBrunette – Cullen – Miettinen9:46
xG 0.29–0.08 (78%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Madden – Nystrom – Clutterbuck8:33
xG 0.12–0.06 (66%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Havlat – Bouchard – Almond3:16
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Nystrom – Staubitz – Almond3:11
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Stoner13:45
xG 0.47–0.12 (80%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Zidlicky – Spurgeon5:30
xG 0.11–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Schultz – Burns13:28
xG 0.36–0.34 (51%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).