Tue, Feb 22, 2011·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Montréal Canadiens 3, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 216 | 14 | 05 | 325 |
| VAN | 012 | 114 | 113 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:07MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Hal Gill · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 7:14MTLBrian GiontaAssists: P.K. Subban, Scott Gomez · Backhand, 0.42 xG2–0
- P2 3:27VANHenrik SedinPPAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 10:36MTLAndrei KostitsynGWGAssists: Lars Eller, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 1:06VANMikael SamuelssonPPAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Daniel Sedin · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:42VANRaffi Torres: Charging2 min
- P1 13:09MTLRoman Hamrlik: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:48MTLPaul Mara: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:23VANMason Raymond: Holding2 min
- P2 3:01MTLCarey Price: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 4:07MTLMax Pacioretty: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:00MTLBenoit Pouliot: Interference2 min
- P2 19:23MTLJeff Halpern: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:07VANAlexandre Burrows: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malhotra won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Gionta – Pacioretty9:50
xG 0.72–0.28 (72%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Moen – Kostitsyn – Eller9:53
xG 0.27–0.03 (91%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Desharnais – White4:13
xG 0.23–0.30 (43%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Halpern – Cammalleri – Plekanec11:31
xG 0.14–0.55 (20%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Wisniewski13:24
xG 0.51–0.32 (61%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Mara – Weber9:02
xG 0.24–0.20 (55%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Gill – Subban15:57
xG 0.66–0.62 (52%)attempts 10–19goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows9:25
xG 0.49–0.33 (60%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Glass – Oreskovich – Hodgson3:08
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Torres – Hansen8:04
xG 0.26–0.30 (46%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Kesler – Raymond9:22
xG 0.17–0.63 (22%)attempts 7–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Rome3:30
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Ehrhoff5:40
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Ballard7:48
xG 0.07–0.09 (46%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).