Wed, Feb 23, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Florida Panthers 1, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 07 | 19 | 08 | 124 |
| OTT | 111 | 28 | 215 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:13OTTBobby ButlerAssists: Colin Greening, Nick Foligno · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 0:36OTTRyan ShannonPPGWGAssists: Jason Spezza, Filip Kuba · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 4:18FLAChris HigginsAssists: Scott Clemmensen · Snap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 10:38OTTBobby ButlerUnassisted · Snap, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 16:49OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Matt Carkner, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.49 xG1–4
- P3 18:38OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Ryan Shannon, Filip Kuba · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:49OTTFrancis Lessard: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:49FLADarcy Hordichuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:08FLACory Stillman: Interference2 min
- P1 6:12FLAJack Skille: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:07OTTAndre Benoit: Holding2 min
- P1 15:23OTTAlex Kovalev: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:28OTTMatt Carkner: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:28FLARostislav Olesz: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:38OTTMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:19FLARadek Dvorak: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:03FLAScott Clemmensen: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P3 11:31OTTZack Smith: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:41FLAKeaton Ellerby: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Reasoner won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Weiss – Higgins3:47
xG 0.29–0.10 (74%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Weiss – Higgins – Olesz4:48
xG 0.10–0.04 (73%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Booth – Santorelli – Timmins2:00
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Bernier – Booth – Santorelli7:52
xG 0.12–0.13 (49%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Garrison7:41
xG 0.38–0.06 (87%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- McCabe – Weaver3:10
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Allen – Wideman6:59
xG 0.15–0.13 (53%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestLessard – Greening – O'Brien2:43
xG 0.42–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Butler6:59
xG 0.71–0.33 (68%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Kovalev – Greening – Foligno3:39
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Shannon – Foligno5:10
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarkner – Benoit8:38
xG 0.69–0.09 (88%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Kuba – Campoli9:36
xG 0.32–0.19 (63%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Campoli – Benoit2:52
xG 0.02–0.10 (16%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).