Wed, Feb 23, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Edmonton Oilers 5, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 13 | 213 | 215 | 531 |
| COL | 013 | 116 | 010 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:17EDMDustin PennerPPAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 7:08EDMSam GagnerGWGAssists: Magnus Paajarvi, Ryan Jones · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 15:49EDMTaylor HallPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.53 xG3–0
- P2 17:36COLMilan HejdukPPAssists: Matt Duchene, John-Michael Liles · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 11:08EDMJordan EberleAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Theo Peckham · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–1
- P3 12:55EDMKurtis FosterAssists: Tom Gilbert, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:48COLKevin Porter: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:46EDMTheo Peckham: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:24EDMShawn Horcoff: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:09COLPhilippe Dupuis: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:32EDMJim Vandermeer: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:55EDMJordan Eberle: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:44COLCody McLeod: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Eberle – Hall14:49
xG 0.74–0.67 (52%)attempts 13–19goals 2–0
- Fraser – MacIntyre – Reddox3:28
xG 0.12–0.19 (39%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Jones – Gagner – Paajarvi8:41
xG 0.34–0.47 (42%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Horcoff – Hemsky – Penner14:08
xG 0.54–0.76 (41%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Smid14:20
xG 1.12–0.62 (64%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Strudwick – Peckham3:36
xG 0.05–0.07 (44%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Strudwick – Vandermeer2:58
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Porter – Duchene11:37
xG 0.60–0.19 (76%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Jones – Stastny – Stoa12:17
xG 0.89–0.79 (53%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- McClement – Yip – McLeod8:48
xG 0.28–0.58 (33%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Wilson4:34
xG 0.59–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Wilson3:49
xG 0.54–0.24 (69%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Liles – Johnson5:38
xG 0.33–0.19 (64%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).