Thu, Feb 24, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Islanders 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 16 | 015 | 213 | 01 | 335 |
| PHI | 011 | 212 | 116 | 14 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:03NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Jack Hillen, Al Montoya · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 1:58PHIMike RichardsAssists: Scott Hartnell · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 17:31PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Claude Giroux, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
- P3 5:05PHIJeff CarterAssists: Claude Giroux, Sean O'Donnell · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 6:31NYIMatt MartinAssists: Micheal Haley, Mark Katic · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 19:32NYIMatt MartinAssists: Travis Hamonic, Andrew MacDonald · Snap, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 4:42PHIAndrej MeszarosGWGAssists: Ville Leino, Matt Carle · Snap, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (2)
- P1 14:39PHIJeff Carter: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:23NYIBlake Comeau: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Moulson – Tavares13:49
xG 1.30–0.83 (61%)attempts 22–15goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner13:23
xG 0.85–0.74 (53%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Konopka – Haley – Martin7:46
xG 0.08–0.14 (35%)attempts 2–8goals 1–0
- Schremp – Comeau – Bailey13:05
xG 0.57–1.04 (35%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWishart – Hillen18:09
xG 1.42–0.73 (66%)attempts 27–16goals 0–2
- Gervais – Katic14:35
xG 0.28–0.52 (35%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic17:53
xG 1.04–2.12 (33%)attempts 13–33goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Versteeg – Nodl6:29
xG 1.04–0.01 (99%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Richards – Versteeg – van Riemsdyk9:09
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Carter – Giroux – van Riemsdyk6:42
xG 0.72–0.49 (59%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Shelley – Carcillo – Powe5:47
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 8–4goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn16:22
xG 1.03–0.50 (67%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
- O'Donnell – Meszaros14:19
xG 1.24–0.95 (57%)attempts 21–14goals 2–0
- Carle – Meszaros2:44
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).