Thu, Feb 24, 2011·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Dallas Stars 4, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 212 | 16 | 17 | 425 |
| DET | 08 | 014 | 117 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:42DALMike RibeiroAssists: Brenden Morrow, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 19:37DALLoui ErikssonSHGWGAssists: Mark Fistric · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 8:54DALKrys BarchAssists: Jason Williams · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P3 16:29DETTomas HolmstromPPAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Backhand, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 18:17DALJamie LangenbrunnerENAssists: Steve Ott, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.58 xG4–1
Penalties (19)
- P1 1:11DALAdam Burish: Holding2 min
- P1 12:45DETDarren Helm: Interference2 min
- P1 12:45DALSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:14DALJason Williams: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:33DALKarlis Skrastins: Holding2 min
- P2 5:28DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:16DALMike Ribeiro: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:16DALAdam Burish: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:16DALAdam Burish: Misconduct10 min
- P2 9:16DETJohan Franzen: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:16DETJohan Franzen: Misconduct10 min
- P2 9:16DETJimmy Howard: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:13DETNicklas Lidstrom: Holding2 min
- P2 15:05DALAlex Goligoski: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:39DALBrenden Morrow: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:52DALSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:52DETJonathan Ericsson: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:55DETKris Draper: Holding2 min
- P3 16:00DALAlex Goligoski: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Hudler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Ribeiro – Benn3:14
xG 0.27–0.12 (68%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Burish3:33
xG 0.17–0.19 (48%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Benn – Vincour6:52
xG 0.02–0.17 (12%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Langenbrunner – Ott – Burish4:55
xG 0.06–0.21 (23%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Robidas – Goligoski14:50
xG 0.43–0.56 (43%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
- Woywitka – Daley11:16
xG 0.32–0.57 (36%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Skrastins – Fistric11:59
xG 0.15–0.68 (18%)attempts 6–16goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDraper – Helm – Mursak5:22
xG 0.37–0.01 (98%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Cleary – Zetterberg – Hudler2:29
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Zetterberg – Franzen4:14
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Cleary – Zetterberg2:38
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRafalski – Ericsson6:57
xG 0.47–0.13 (78%)attempts 14–2goals 0–1
- Lidstrom – Rafalski2:32
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Lidstrom – Kronwall2:43
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).