Thu, Feb 24, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 312 | 15 | 111 | 528 |
| MTL | 113 | 210 | 112 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:43MTLJeff HalpernAssists: Roman Hamrlik, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 8:00TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 12:03TORPhil KesselPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P1 13:02TORBrett LebdaAssists: Colby Armstrong, Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 3:42MTLMichael CammalleriPPAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 4:02MTLJames WisniewskiPPAssists: Brian Gionta, Roman Hamrlik · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
- P2 8:30TORTyler BozakPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Tim Brent · Snap, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 4:26TORTyler BozakGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Brett Lebda · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–3
- P3 17:23MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Jeff Halpern, Michael Cammalleri · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:08TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:30MTLJames Wisniewski: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:54MTLBrian Gionta: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:10MTLBrian Gionta: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 18:27MTLTravis Moen: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:19TORFredrik Sjostrom: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 3:52TORMikhail Grabovski: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:08TORJoffrey Lupul: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:32MTLJames Wisniewski: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:52MTLPaul Mara: Interference2 min
- P3 1:44TORDarryl Boyce: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:47MTLHal Gill: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:47TORLuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:16MTLRoman Hamrlik: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:24TORKeith Aulie: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kessel – Bozak8:29
xG 0.44–0.19 (70%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin9:38
xG 0.42–0.30 (58%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Armstrong – Boyce – Brown5:54
xG 0.05–0.14 (27%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Sjostrom – Crabb – Brent5:55
xG 0.06–0.91 (6%)attempts 2–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Phaneuf – Aulie11:25
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
- Gunnarsson – Schenn10:51
xG 0.47–0.44 (51%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson2:26
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Cammalleri – Plekanec9:52
xG 0.54–0.10 (84%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Pacioretty8:42
xG 0.74–0.45 (62%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Moen – Kostitsyn – Eller5:25
xG 0.01–0.02 (39%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Desharnais – White4:34
xG 0.02–0.07 (21%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMara – Weber8:44
xG 0.64–0.08 (89%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Wisniewski15:57
xG 0.74–0.44 (63%)attempts 24–9goals 1–1
- Gill – Subban8:41
xG 0.41–0.18 (70%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).