Thu, Feb 24, 2011·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Minnesota Wild 2, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 06 | 213 | 08 | 227 |
| LAK | 113 | 112 | 25 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:25LAKWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Jack Johnson, Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 4:03MINEric NystromAssists: Martin Havlat, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 10:18LAKWayne SimmondsAssists: Anze Kopitar, Marco Sturm · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 19:55MINBrent BurnsPPAssists: Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 4:39LAKDrew DoughtyGWGAssists: Dustin Brown, Ryan Smyth · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 18:46LAKAnze KopitarENAssists: Michal Handzus · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:46LAKDustin Brown: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:33MINBrent Burns: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:25MINMarek Zidlicky: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:07LAKJustin Williams: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:04MINClayton Stoner: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:50LAKDrew Doughty: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 10:10MINBrent Burns: Holding2 min
- P3 12:30LAKMatt Greene: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:01LAKRyan Smyth: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Cullen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestMadden – Havlat – Bouchard12:21
xG 0.46–0.21 (69%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Brunette – Cullen – Miettinen10:38
xG 0.38–0.14 (73%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Kobasew – Clutterbuck – Almond5:59
xG 0.05–0.05 (51%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Nystrom – Ortmeyer – Staubitz3:19
xG 0.03–0.14 (18%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Spurgeon9:16
xG 0.48–0.21 (69%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Zanon – Stoner12:19
xG 0.31–0.27 (53%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
- Schultz – Burns14:03
xG 0.25–0.33 (43%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestPonikarovsky – Lewis – Clifford7:16
xG 0.16–0.02 (90%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Sturm – Kopitar – Simmonds10:37
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Smyth – Stoll – Brown10:33
xG 0.35–0.33 (52%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Handzus – Williams – Richardson9:03
xG 0.15–0.41 (27%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Drewiske10:51
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Johnson13:30
xG 0.60–0.51 (54%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Doughty15:03
xG 0.34–0.36 (49%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).