Fri, Feb 25, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 06 | 116 | 012 | 134 |
| CAR | 29 | 16 | 16 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:44CARJay HarrisonAssists: Erik Cole, Jamie McBain · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 16:43CARJoe CorvoPPGWGAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Jussi Jokinen · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 10:59CARErik ColeAssists: Eric Staal, Derek Joslin · Tip-in, 0.19 xG0–3
- P2 15:32PITPascal DupuisAssists: Mike Rupp, Zbynek Michalek · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 14:53CARJussi JokinenAssists: Brandon Sutter, Derek Joslin · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:14PITMike Rupp: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:33PITMatt Cooke: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:43PITAlex Kovalev: Interference2 min
- P2 1:24CARTuomo Ruutu: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:15CARJamie McBain: Interference2 min
- P3 16:57CARJay Harrison: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:45PITAlex Kovalev: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKovalev – Neal – Staal13:17
xG 0.82–0.50 (62%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Jeffrey2:16
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kennedy – Vitale – Conner2:01
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Adams – Vitale – Conner5:45
xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Letang2:35
xG 0.14–0.05 (74%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Engelland – Letang9:26
xG 0.68–0.61 (53%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Engelland – Strait6:24
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStillman – Cole – Staal7:24
xG 0.57–0.12 (83%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
- Ruutu – LaRose – Skinner6:28
xG 0.19–0.03 (84%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Stillman – Cole – Ruutu3:38
xG 0.03–0.01 (79%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- LaRose – Dwyer – Skinner4:40
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Joslin13:40
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 6–10goals 2–0
- Pitkanen – McBain15:54
xG 0.71–0.65 (52%)attempts 9–21goals 0–1
- Corvo – Gleason14:45
xG 0.41–0.61 (41%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).