Fri, Feb 25, 2011·Rexall Place, Edmonton
St. Louis Blues 5, Edmonton Oilers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 29 | 18 | 25 | 522 |
| EDM | 013 | 09 | 017 | 039 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:07STLChris StewartGWGAssists: Patrik Berglund, Roman Polak · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–0
- P1 17:48STLPatrik BerglundPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Carlo Colaiacovo · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 4:19STLChris StewartPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–0
- P3 15:59STLRoman PolakAssists: Brad Boyes, Barret Jackman · Snap, 0.17 xG4–0
- P3 17:53STLMatt D'AgostiniAssists: Cam Janssen, Andy McDonald · Wrist, 0.26 xG5–0
Penalties (12)
- P1 15:48EDMAles Hemsky: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 18:07STLRoman Polak: Holding2 min
- P2 2:34EDMShawn Horcoff: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:45EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:45STLB.J. Crombeen: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:37EDMJordan Eberle: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 10:53EDMTheo Peckham: Misconduct10 min
- P3 10:53EDMColin Fraser: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:53STLKevin Shattenkirk: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:48STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:00STLCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:00EDMJason Strudwick: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gagner won the faceoff against Sobotka
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestWinchester – Janssen – D'Agostini3:50
xG 0.56–0.25 (69%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Oshie – Stewart – Berglund8:10
xG 0.61–0.52 (54%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Steen – Crombeen – Sobotka8:54
xG 0.14–0.27 (35%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- McDonald – Boyes – Backes10:59
xG 0.44–0.85 (34%)attempts 4–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Pietrangelo10:14
xG 0.81–0.58 (59%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Jackman – Polak12:39
xG 0.79–0.69 (53%)attempts 11–16goals 2–0
- Colaiacovo – Strachan13:13
xG 0.06–0.79 (7%)attempts 3–19goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJones – Gagner – Paajarvi8:10
xG 0.53–0.03 (95%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Hemsky – Penner9:45
xG 0.71–0.25 (74%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Eberle – Hall9:56
xG 0.68–0.81 (46%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Jacques – Fraser – Reddox5:44
xG 0.22–0.35 (39%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Smid12:52
xG 1.65–0.27 (86%)attempts 27–4goals 0–0
- Strudwick – Foster8:51
xG 0.28–0.31 (48%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Vandermeer – Peckham11:42
xG 0.23–0.30 (43%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).