Fri, Feb 25, 2011·Honda Center, Anaheim
Minnesota Wild 3, Anaheim Ducks 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 112 | 010 | 15 | 14 | 331 |
| ANA | 010 | 120 | 115 | 03 | 248 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:29MINJohn MaddenAssists: Andrew Brunette, Antti Miettinen · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 9:22ANABobby RyanAssists: Jason Blake, Ryan Getzlaf · Tip-in, 0.31 xG1–1
- P3 15:03MINClayton StonerAssists: Antti Miettinen, Greg Zanon · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 18:00ANAFrancois BeaucheminAssists: Jason Blake, Teemu Selanne · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–2
- OT 4:53MINPierre-Marc BouchardGWGAssists: Brent Burns, Antti Miettinen · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:51ANAMaxim Lapierre: Boarding2 min
- P1 9:55ANATeemu Selanne: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:40MINNick Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:25ANACorey Perry: Charging2 min
- P2 7:22MINBrent Burns: Interference2 min
- P2 13:05ANALuca Sbisa: Holding2 min
- P2 13:09MINPierre-Marc Bouchard: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:46MINGreg Zanon: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:56MINJed Ortmeyer: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Madden won the faceoff against McMillan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Brunette – Madden – Miettinen4:49
xG 0.09–0.15 (38%)attempts 3–4goals 2–0
- Madden – Havlat – Bouchard2:20
xG 0.10–0.17 (36%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Madden – Nystrom – Ortmeyer2:47
xG 0.01–0.19 (4%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Cullen – Havlat – Bouchard7:11
xG 0.09–0.29 (25%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Zidlicky – Spurgeon11:06
xG 0.23–0.31 (43%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Zanon – Stoner15:06
xG 0.38–0.53 (42%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Schultz – Burns12:46
xG 0.52–0.80 (39%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestMarchant – Ruutu – Sexton10:38
xG 0.75–0.25 (75%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Selanne – Blake – McMillan12:48
xG 0.47–0.10 (83%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan14:13
xG 0.50–0.58 (46%)attempts 11–12goals 0–2
- Parros – Lapierre – Chipchura2:51
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLilja – Fowler12:32
xG 0.66–0.21 (76%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Fowler2:04
xG 0.41–0.01 (98%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Lydman – Visnovsky14:19
xG 0.50–0.49 (51%)attempts 14–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).